Arkansas Rice Update 9-11-26

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - September 11, 2026

Arkansas Rice Update 2026-26

September 11, 2026

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“They call me the breeze, I keep blowin’ down the road.”

September Heat

Well friends and neighbors, bad news is on the rise.  Milling started on an optimistic note.  Not a great note, but an optimistic one.  Then it seemed like things were weakening, but there was reason to hold out hope.  Then Mother Nature added fuel to the fire on this never-ending summer and decided to cook the rice herself.  So now we have dramatic drops in milling yields.  It has gotten very bad, very fast.

Grain yields I would still call mostly solid, but with consistent variability.  Progress continues to scream along, currently sitting right with 2016 and 2024 for the fastest harvest in recent years.  By Monday’s report it should still be in line with those years at 70+% harvested. 

Part of our problems in rice of course have to do with weather records.  Hottest average nightly temp for September to this date on record.  Third highest afternoon temps.  Second hottest average temp.  It’s just not a good thing for mature / maturing rice drying down in the field.  And of course, August was no picnic either.  But here we are.

See more below on preliminary results of Arkansas Rice Performance Trials, harvest progress, supply/demand, and markets.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  Arkansas rice 2026 harvest progress.

Check out this additional post on Arkansas Row Crops Blog:

How Can Dry Soil Conditions Affect Soil Sampling and Soil-Test Results?

Preliminary 2026 ARPT Results

Jarrod Hardke

Reminder that “preliminary” data hasn’t been fully processed and is subject to change.  This data has been summarized quickly in an effort to report data as soon as possible.  Four locations remain to be harvested.

Table 1.  Preliminary Arkansas Rice Performance Trial (ARPT) results by location and planting date.

Market Update

Scott Stiles

The September WASDE and NASS Crop Production were released on Friday, September 11^th.  Most of the adjustments to the long-grain balance were in the 2025/26 marketing year.  On a sizeable 5.1 million cut in old crop domestic use, ending stocks for 2025/26 were increased from 37.6 million in August to 41.8 million cwt.

On higher old crop stocks, the 2026/27 balance sheet saw a 4.2 million cwt. increase in beginning stocks, increasing from 37.6 to 41.8 million cwt.  This was partly offset by a reduction in crop size.  Long-grain production was lowered by 3.2 million this month to 103.5 million cwt.  Harvested acres were lowered slightly in Louisiana and Mississippi.  The projected yield in Missouri was lowered 100 pounds to 7,900 (175.6 bu.).  The U.S. average long-grain yield was lowered 200 pounds per acre to 7,443 pounds.  The U.S. is on track to harvest the smallest long-grain crop since 1993.

Table 2.  U.S. Long-Grain Supply and Demand.

Total usage was unchanged from last month at 167.0 million cwt.  Ending stocks increased by 1.1 million cwt to 21.4 million but are down almost 49 percent from last year.  The 2026/27 season-average farm price was unchanged at $13.50 per cwt or $6.08 per bushel.  The 2025/26 average farm price was also unchanged at $10.40/cwt or $4.68 per bushel.

The futures market reaction to Friday’s USDA reports was muted.  Information from NASS Rice Stocks report released August 20 was already in the market.  November ’26 rice futures settled 4 ½ cents lower in Friday’s session to close at $16.02 ½.  Mid-week trading in the November contract reached a high of $16.22—the highest trade for a November contract since November 2023.

Fig. 3.  CME November 2026 Rough Rice, Daily Chart.

Table 3.  U.S. Rice Harvest - Selected States (% harvested).

 Source: USDA NASS.

Links to USDA reports:

Crop Production | NASS

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Crop Acreage Data | Farm Service Agency

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2026 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2025 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.