Arkansas Rice Update 9-6-24

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - September 6, 2024

Arkansas Rice Update 2024-22

September 6, 2024

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“Looking out at the road rushing under my wheels.”

High Yield, Meh Milling

Solid yield reports continue as we continue sweeping through harvest.  Some growers have now rapped up harvest as we cross the 50% harvested mark in the state.  This past Monday’s 39% harvested number was a little lower than expected, but cloudier and rainier conditions than expected over the weekend, including the holiday, tapped the brakes on harvest in areas.

While most yields are still tracking very well, we are starter to get more reports of problem fields – some easily explained and others not so much.  But they continue to be outliers at this stage.  Some fields appear to be drift related, others disease, some fertility, and some we still don’t know.

What we do know is that milling yields have been average at best.  Unfortunately, the recent rains have knocked milling yields further down – in some cases to extreme low levels.  Too much rice ready for harvest at once falling to lower moistures then receiving soaking rain events will cause the fissuring of kernels from rewetting and drying.

We’re expected to have beautiful conditions through the middle of the coming week which should make for another big leap forward in harvest progress.  The current forecast leaves a big question mark on exactly where the majority of rain will fall, with the southern half of the state expected to receive more.  But time will tell with that rain event a week out.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  2012-2024 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

Preliminary 2024 ARPT Results

Reminder that “preliminary” means the data hasn’t been fully processed and could change prior to final publication.  This data has been summarized quickly in an effort to report data as soon as possible.  Six locations remain to be harvested.

Table 1.  Preliminary Arkansas Rice Performance Trial (ARPT) results by location and planting date.

Grain:  L = long-grain; CL = Clearfield long-grain; PL = Provisia long-grain; ML = MaxAce long-grain; MLH = MaxAce long-grain hybrid; FLH = FullPage long-grain hybrid; LH = long-grain hybrid; M = medium-grain; CM = Clearfield medium-grain.

Locations:  RREC = Rice Research & Extension Center, Stuttgart; CLAY = grower field, McDougal, Clay Co.; GRE = grower field, Paragould, Greene Co.; JACK = grower field, Newport, Jackson Co., ARK = grower field, Gillette, Arkansas Co.

What Blanked That Panicle?

Blank kernels on panicles are a natural phenomenon and 10-20% blank kernels shouldn’t necessarily be cause for concern.  However, in cases of more severe blanking there are many potential causes, and many of them have vaguely similar appearances.

Here are some images and descriptions of assorted factors that can lead to partial or fully blanked panicles in rice:

Fig. 3.  Factors responsible for panicle blanking in rice.

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

Monday’s Crop Progress report from NASS included harvest estimates as of September 1.  Above normal temperatures in the final week of August provided rapid drying and kept harvest well ahead of last year and the 5-year average.  Currently there are no organized storm systems in the Atlantic.  Texas coastal areas do continue to receive frequent rain as well as Louisiana.  This pattern has been slowing down rice harvest for those states.

Table 2.  Rice Harvest - Selected States (% harvested).

Fig. 4.  NOAA 6-10 day precipitation outlook.

As a side note, the Mississippi River at Memphis is -6.75’ feet as of Friday (9/6) morning.  It doesn’t appear a lot of rain is expected to fall in the Mississippi watershed over the next two weeks.

Corn and soybean basis at Mississippi River terminals weakened significantly during August.  However, the decline in River basis seems to have slowed if not stabilized over the past week.  Rice basis has remained steady over the past month at local dryers and mills in Arkansas.  Fall delivery rice bids to mills on Thursday (9/5) averaged $6.64/bu; the highest since June 28^th.

The USDA will release its monthly WASDE, Crop Production, and FSA Certified Acres next week on Thursday, September 12^th.  Trading ranges tend to get narrow and sideways ahead of key USDA reports.  That sort of trading may be developing now as November rice seems to be forming the “flag” portion of what could be a “bullish flag” (see chart).  The “flagpole” developed in Wednesday’s session that covered a wide, 47-cent range.  This possible “flag” formation, if textbook, could be indicating a return trip to the August 1 high of $15.62.  Further above $15.62, there is a chart gap in the $15.75 to $15.77 area that occurred in much thinner trading back in late June.  The summer high for the November contract was $15.86 ½ on June 17^th.

Fig. 5.  CME November 2024 Rough Rice Futures, Daily Chart.

This week we threw in a 10-year seasonal chart (Fig. 6) for November rice futures that also includes an overlay of the Nov 2024 contract.  As a word of caution, seasonal tendency is based on past prices and “normal” seasonal behavior can be overwhelmed sometimes by changing fundamental factors.  A seasonal index attempts to dampen the years with abnormally wide price swings and capture the relative movement of prices within the season.

As background information, we constructed a seasonal graph using daily settlement prices for the 2014 to 2023 November rice futures contracts.  Each daily price is expressed as a percentage of the year’s average and will have a value equal to, greater than, or less than 100.  Most indices of this type use a base value of 100 percent.  A value of 98 (or .98) on a particular date would mean that day’s rice price was 2 percent below the yearly average.

Fig. 6.  CME November Rough Rice, 10-Year Seasonal Index v. November 2024 Contract.

A variation on the seasonal index is to attach a second vertical (or Y axis) to the seasonal index and plot the current year’s values.  In the graph, we’ve superimposed the November 2024 contract’s actual prices over the 10-year seasonal index.  This attempts to reveal if this year’s price movements are conforming to the expected seasonal pattern.

From the accompanying graph, if the September 14^th index value was historically 103 (or 1.03), that would mean the price on that approximate date was 3 percent above the year’s average price.  For example, we’ve determined the November 2024 contract has averaged $15.19 since November 3, 2023.  A 3% increase from the average price would place the November contract at roughly $15.65; very near the August 1 high of $15.62 for the November ’24 contract.

Seasonal price tendency is simply another tool to consider in trying to correctly identify the timing of major market moves as well as absolute price levels.  From a historical standpoint, the upcoming week could be an opportune time to make additional sales of production being sold against the November futures contract.  It appears October has typically been a month of weaker prices as the bulk of rice harvest volume weighs on the market.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2024 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2023 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.