Arkansas Rice Update 9-5-25

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - September 5, 2025

Arkansas Rice Update 2025-24

September 5, 2025

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, & Nick Bateman

“Is that the clattering of sabers, or the cool September wind?”

Milling Bump Up, Yield Bump Down

Irregularities abound.  While I’m happy to report general improvement in milling yields and milder harvest conditions that may continue to support that trend, not all news is good.  We’re definitely seeing average head rice yields several pounds above last year, with some truly bright spots in the mix.  However, yield reports continue to be all over the place.  Some areas of the state are very happy with their yields, but most continue to report some good fields, and some not so much.  And it’s getting taxing on everywhere with the number of calls regarding fields that are 30 bushels below expectation.  This is not the kind of answer we were looking for out of this year.

The suspected reasons haven’t really changed much from last week.  The predominant factors still seem to be delayed nitrogen, herbicide issues, or water issues, but probably 20% of fields haven’t been explainable, at least not confidently.  Some may have experienced random pop-up showers that occurred during flowering in mid-July (excessive blanks), but it’s still tough to know for sure.

Last year’s record state average yield of 170 bu/acre seems a long time ago.  I’m beginning to expect a state average yield of around 165 bu/acre for this year, based on what we’ve seen so far.  Certainly there is still a lot of harvest left to go to adjust that number.

Next week we should be able to start reporting preliminary yields from some variety trials that have been harvested so far.

Read on below for more information on rice delphacid and markets.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  2012-2025 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

Rice Delphacid Kicked the Door Down

Nick Bateman and Jarrod Hardke

Podcast:  Entomology Update 9-5-25: Rice Delphacid Found in Arkansas, Loopers in Soybeans, Redbanded Stink Bugs in Louisiana (Nick Bateman, Ben Thrash)

Not so fast, my friends.  In less than a week we have gone from Rice Delphacid (RD) getting close to Arkansas to finding full blown outbreaks of this pest in southwest Arkansas, and the first report in the Delta region near Lake Village.

Rice that is in the late boot to early heading stages is still very much of concern to possible RD infestation and damage.  Luckily the majority of rice in the state is being harvested, ready for harvest, or about to be.  But we need to keep on the lookout in any later rice fields, especially those green enough to still require sweeping for stink bugs.

Hopefully there won’t be need for much alarm in our major rice growing region this year, but we still want to monitor its spread and take any opportunity this year to look at control options in case it decides to stay around for future seasons.  Please report any findings (or possible findings) to us so we can check it out.  Do not wait to see hopper burn areas in the field before deciding to look for this pest as by then we may not be able to slow it down.

Fig. 3.  Rice delphacid (RD) adults and nymphs on a leaf.  RD adults have tented wings with males dark brown and females light tan or yellow.  RD nymphs are yellow with long brown racing stripes.

Fig. 4.  Rice delphacid nymphs on green rice kernels showing their small size.

Fig. 5.  Rice delphacid adults and nymphs along with a rice stink bug and various other insects showing size and appearance comparison. 

Market Update

Scott Stiles

CBOT rice futures failed to build any upside momentum this week.  As of Friday morning, the November contract is retracing all of last week’s gains and is close to nearby support at the $11.82 area.  It has been a shortened trading week with nothing extra in terms of fundamental news.  Today, trader attention was on the weekly Export Sales report; delayed a day due to the Monday holiday.  Per the report, rice sales last week were strong.

For the week ending August 28^th, export sales of long-grain rough, milled, and brown rice hit marketing year highs.  The US sold 40,416 tons of long-grain rough rice to Mexico (11,656), Honduras (10,500), and Unknown (18,000).  Canada was the primary buyer of milled and brown rice, taking 42,639 and 20,022 tons of each, respectively.  Last week’s large sale to Canada pulled long-grain milled rice sales 18% ahead of last year.  However, rough rice sales continue to lag far behind, with sales down 35 to 55% to many of our perennial markets in Central America and Mexico.

The chart below provides a revealing look at new crop rice futures from January to the current week.  The November 2025 rough rice contract has traded from a high of $14.45/cwt in January to a low of $11.72 in August.  That’s a trading range of $2.73/cwt or $1.23 per bushel.  From high to low, the November contract has fallen almost 19% this year.  Using NASS’ projected state average yield of 167 bushels, the revenue swing from high to low in the November contract equates to $205 per acre.

Fig. 6.  CME November 2025 Rice Futures, Weekly Chart.

September 12^th WASDE and Crop Production

Looking ahead to next week’s USDA reports, recall the August yield estimates were based on farmer surveys from July 30-Aug. 6 and satellite imagery through July 27.  The September report will incorporate objective field surveys into yields.  Those numbers will be updated in October, November and for the final estimates in January.  Link to the Sept. WASDE below.

September 2025 WASDE Report (Release time: 11:00 AM CT, September 12)

Fig.  7.  Seven-day tropical weather outlook.

It is doubtful we’ll see much change in harvested acreage, unless there’s a major late-season weather event that impacts a large swath of acres.  At the present time, there is one disturbance out in the Atlantic that might organize over the next 7 days.  Rice harvest is well advanced in Louisiana and Texas and now beyond the respective 79% and 74% harvested shown in this week’s Crop Progress.  Since NASS incorporated the FSA certified acreage data into its estimates in August, the acreage numbers FSA gives us in August have been very close to the final numbers.

The Crop Progress report released this week had Arkansas at 26% harvested as of August 31^st.  That’s behind last year’s 37% for the same week, but ahead of the 5-year average of 15% harvested.  Mississippi and Missouri’s harvest is also ahead of the average pace for the final week of August.

Table 1.  Rice Harvested - Selected States (%).

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2025 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2024 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.