Arkansas Rice Update 9-4-26

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - September 5, 2026

Arkansas Rice Update 2026-25

September 4, 2026

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“Dust on my boots, dust on my truck, probly got a little running in my blood.”

Alright Already

More hot.  More dry.  Another year of an early, fast-paced harvest with incredibly rapid drops in grain moisture in the field.  It seems like only yesterday we had a year with an abnormally hot, dry fall.  Then the next year was an incredible coincidence.  The third year seemed like a trend (or a streak if you’re a baseball fan).  At this point are we talking a new norm, or just part of a cycle we happen to be in for a little while?

Field yield reports continue to be mostly solid.  A welcome outcome for sure.  Those problem fields are starting to show up where water was clearly an issue.  Flooded fields that struggled to maintain adequate water and row rice fields that may have gotten a little too dry or missed a timely irrigation have some weak yields.  Overall, though, we apparently did very well keeping up under trying conditions.  Dramatic reductions in rice acres certainly helped keep enough water available to be enough in most instances.

Harvest progress by the end of this weekend should have well cleared the 50% mark and be line with progress in 2024 and 2016.  Given the continued hot dry forecast we may exceed the progress of those years by the following week.  So 10 days from now (mid-September) most of harvest may be behind us.  Just incredible.

See more below on preliminary planting date yields, harvest progress, and markets.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  Arkansas rice 2026 harvest progress.

Preliminary DD50 Planting Date Study

Jarrod Hardke

“Preliminary” data hasn’t been fully processed and is subject to change.  We still need time to work through plot and trial notes as well as correct any errors.

Table 1.  Preliminary 2026 DD50 Planting Date Studies, RREC, Stuttgart, AR and NERREC, Harrisburg, AR.

Market Update

Scott Stiles

Labor Day Grain Markets Schedule

• Monday, Sept. 7: All markets and government offices are closed.  
• Grain markets reopen at 7 p.m. CT on Monday, Sept. 7 for the overnight session.

Rice futures remain in a bullish uptrend with the November 2026 contract making a 52-week high on Wednesday at $15.98.  Following some weakness in Thursday’s session, Friday’s trading has featured a reversal higher in November futures and a retest of the mid-week high.  Next week, traders will be positioning for the upcoming USDA reports.  On Friday (Sept. 11^th), USDA will release its monthly WASDE, Crop Production and FSA certified acres.

Fig. 3.  CME November Rough Rice, 5-Year Weekly Continuation.

In the September WASDE there could be a few adjustments to the long-grain balance sheet.  It appears a certainty that old crop (25/26) ending stocks will be increased.  On August 20^th, USDA released the final Rice Stocks report for the 2025/26 marketing year.  It revealed August 1 long-grain stocks of 38.174 million cwt.  That is .574 million cwt. above USDA’s August ending stocks estimate of 37.6 million.  This implies that old crop usage will be lowered.  Likewise, new crop (26/27) beginning stocks will be increased by a corresponding amount.  Bear in mind, this information has already been traded and largely ignored given the recent push to new contract highs in November futures.

Link: Rough rice stocks on August 1, 2026

The September FSA certified acreage will further refine the historic 2026 acreage picture.  NASS will shift its harvested acres accordingly.  In recent years, the average deviation between August and September FSA rice acreage is close to zero.  That’s likely true this year as NASS already used FSA data to make its adjustments in the August Crop Production.  The likelihood of a significant acreage revision in September is very low.

Any production changes in September will be driven mostly by yield updates rather than acres.  The September Crop Production will include data NASS collected from late August through the first week of September.  With rice harvest moving fast, the grower surveys will include a heavier than normal amount of actual yield data.

If the September USDA reports trigger any sharp moves in the futures market, overhead resistance for the November contract will be at $15.98 ½  (52-week high) and the psychological $16.00 mark.  A clean upside breakout opens a path toward the back-month January prices, which are currently in the $16.00 to $16.35 range.  Last week we pointed out the 76% retracement at $16.23 on the November continuation chart as a possible upside objective.  If the September USDA reports deliver negative news, then the $15.40 to $15.44 area will be the first line of support.  Below there, support will be down at the 20-day moving average at $15.05.

Links to USDA reports:

Crop Production | NASS

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Crop Acreage Data | Farm Service Agency

Rice Harvest Progress:

The 2026 harvest is progressing steadily and remains ahead of historical averages for all the key rice states.  Harvest across the Mid-South will make another large stride this week.  A combination of early planting, a late-summer heatwave, and an extended period of dry weather has accelerated crop maturity.  In Monday’s Crop Progress, Arkansas was 33% harvested as of August 30^th.  That’s up from 16% the week prior and well ahead of the 18% five-year average.  Harvest for the state should easily be at the 50% mark by Labor Day.  In 2024, Arkansas was 56% harvested by September 8^th.

Table 2.  U.S. Rice Harvest - Selected States (% harvested).

Source: USDA NASS.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2026 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2025 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.