Arkansas Rice Update 9-20-24

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - September 20, 2024

Arkansas Rice Update 2024-23

September 20, 2024

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“Weather warnings in between…”

Could’ve Been Worse

Francine has come and gone, and there are some general sighs of relief around the state with a hot spot left reeling.  As the forecast track of the storm shifted around, ultimately Francine drifted east as it climbed past southern Arkansas (causing more problems in Mississippi) before turning more westward and slowing down as it hit northern Arkansas.

The result – smaller rainfall amounts and limited wind in southern Arkansas with much larger rainfall amounts and higher winds in northern Arkansas.  The initial storm event of Thursday and Friday wasn’t good, but additional problems were heaped on with more rain through the weekend into Monday.  The unluckiest totaled 10 inches of rain or more.

Some lodging and “waffling” of rice increased across all areas with the rains and any wind at all, but much of our rice area avoided major issues.  However, portions of Poinsett, Cross, and St. Francis Counties (and nearby areas) in northern Arkansas took on greater amounts of wind and rain that put more rice to the ground.  The continued wet conditions for 5 days displayed limited sprouting on some standing rice where heads are down in the canopy, while lodged rice is easily beginning to sprout where it’s trapped in the underlayer of rice.  Within that area, it is a pretty ugly ordeal for any crop in the field, not just rice.

Harvest has been slow to ramp back up this week as soils have been slow to dry.  Harvest has resumed in most areas other than those hardest hit and still draining off.  Restarting in muddy soil conditions ensures additional land prep to prepare for next year, and even standing rice needs to be harvested quickly to avoid further deterioration.

It will still be some time before we know the full impact of the storm on yield and milling.  Right now the forecast for next week is sketchy at best – mid-week may bring some rains but chances increase for next weekend.  Cooler temps for the week could help stabilize the situation and prevent further milling deterioration despite additional rainfall.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  2012-2024 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

Don’t Use Harvest Aids in Downed Rice

Jarrod Hardke

Hurricane Francine didn’t do us any favors, and while most areas escaped major lodging issues, some areas in particular were laid low.  Each time this happens, the questions begin “will salt help me cut this downed rice easier?”  Say no to the salt.

While sodium chlorate (salt) may help a little, it can cause as much or more harm.  Salt can only desiccate what it comes into contact with, and in lodged rice, that means only the top layer of rice.  So the top layer dries out completely while everything underneath stays green (Fig. XX).  No we’ve spent extra money, have a thin layer of super dry rice on top, and wetter, greener, higher moisture rice underneath.  A recipe for more problems rather than a solution.

Of course, if you have a field with some isolated areas of lodging I’m not saying that should stop you if you need to salt.  But in general avoid applying salt to any sizable lodged areas or whole fields that are down.

Fig. 3.  Lodged rice (left); top layer of rice versus underneath layer after salting (right).

Preliminary 2024 ARPT Results

Reminder that “preliminary” means the data hasn’t been fully processed and could change prior to final publication.  This data has been summarized quickly in an effort to report data as soon as possible.  Six locations remain to be harvested.

**Notes about the sites – LAW harvest was delayed and had severe lodging (numbers in superscript) – ARK had volunteer rice present which may have affected yields.**

Table 1.  Preliminary Arkansas Rice Performance Trial (ARPT) results by location and planting date.

¹ Grain:  L = long-grain; CL = Clearfield long-grain; PL = Provisia long-grain; ML = MaxAce long-grain; MLH = MaxAce long-grain hybrid; FLH = FullPage long-grain hybrid; LH = long-grain hybrid; M = medium-grain; CM = Clearfield medium-grain.

² Lodging numbers are in superscript beside grain yields.

Locations:  RREC = Rice Research & Extension Center, Stuttgart; CLAY = grower field, McDougal, Clay Co.; GRE = grower field, Paragould, Greene Co.; JACK = grower field, Newport, Jackson Co.; LAW = grower field, ARK = grower field, Gillette, Arkansas Co.

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

“Eight Straight”.  November futures have closed higher each day from September 10^th to the 19^th and even dismissed USDA’s September WASDE, which could’ve been characterized as bearish for long-grain.  A notable change was the 3.9 million cwt. increase in long-grain ending stocks to 27.1 million.  That’s a 40% increase over last year and the highest since 2020.  Most of the increase came from old crop balance sheet adjustments that added 2.3 million to new crop beginning stocks.  New crop imports were increased another 1 million to a record 39 million cwt.  Domestic use was lowered 1 million to a record 122 million cwt.

Table 2.  U.S. Long-Grain Rice, Supply and Demand.

Again, Chicago rice futures blew off last week’s supply/demand report and focused on other concerns, which might be the production losses in Texas and here in Arkansas.  In NASS’ September Crop Production, the Texas rice crop was lowered by 1.44 million cwt. on a 1000 pound per acre reduction in the state average yield.  The USDA reports for September were compiled before Francine made the rounds through Arkansas.

Other items that may be supporting the rice market include the fresh lows the U.S. Dollar this week.  It traded down to 99.885 mid-week, the lowest trade for the Dollar since July 2023.  That helps with export competitiveness, which brings us to yesterday's USDA Export Sales.  Both long-grain rough rice and milled rice scored season high shipments for the week ending September 12^th.  Rough rice shipments totaled 37,436 tons with 71% of that going to Nicaragua.  There were other shipments to Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala.  Milled rice shipments totaled 19,006 tons with Haiti, Dominican Republic, Canada, and Mexico taking the bulk of deliveries.

Of note, both BNSF Railway (BNSF) and Union Pacific Railroad (UP) have stopped issuing any permits for grain shuttle trains to Mexico because of ongoing congestion and a growing backlog of loaded trains.  BNSF stopped issuing any permits for grain shuttle trains destined to Mexico from August 21 to September 20, and recently extended the policy through September 30.  On September 18, Union Pacific Railroad (UP) stopped issuing any permits for grain shuttle trains to Mexico until a current train backlog is cleared.

In the cash market, spot new crop bids at mills around Arkansas are near $6.70/bu at this writing Friday morning.  As November rice futures flirt with the August 1 high of $15.62, it may start to encounter some technical resistance.  Arguably, trading is at a critical juncture “seasonally” that bears watching.  Seasonal tendencies over the past decade point to notable price weakness in the November contract during the month of October.

Fig. 4.  CME Rough Rice, November 2024 Futures, Daily Chart.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2024 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2023 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.