Arkansas Rice Update 9-2-22

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - September 2, 2022

Arkansas Rice Update 2022-23

September 2, 2022

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, and Tommy Butts

“Mr. Weatherman, what is your forecast?  I need a major change.”

Behind the 8-Ball?

Jarrod Hardke

Harvest progress still remains slow at this point without much to update.  Still calling yield reports “solid” so far with most seeming satisfied and only a couple of disappointments.  More rice is very close to being ready, but the slight drop in temperatures and increase in clouds hasn’t given us the grain moisture drop we need to finish maturing.  The couple of days of lower humidity this week didn’t deliver the heat and sun needed to go with it.

A number of comments this week of samples being taken thinking rice looked ready only for it to still be 23-25% moisture.  The reality is that when conditions turn favorable, moisture can drop a few points in just a few days, but it can easily take a week to drop a few points if drying conditions aren’t good.

The forecast for next week seems to get modified by the minute.  While the overall rain chances look very low, every day is forecast to have very high humidity (100% overnight!), be partly cloudy, and 30-50% chances of rain.  As Harry Hogge in Days of Thunder said, “this is not the kind of answer I’m looking for from you.”

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Preliminary Planting Date Yield Data

Jarrod Hardke

Table 1 contains preliminary yield data from 2022 and 2021 planting date studies at the RREC at Stuttgart.  Reminder:  the 2022 data is preliminary because we haven’t fully analyzed it yet – so it may look different in its final form presented later this year.  Since we start getting questions about performance data already, we’re showing this now for an ‘early look’.  Also note these were all managed with a conventional herbicide program so that everything could be included in one trial.

Table 1.  Preliminary planting date study date for 2022 versus 2021 data.

Grain Type: L = long-grain; M = medium-grain; CL = Clearfield long-grain; CM = Clearfield medium-grain; FL = FullPage long-grain; ML = MaxAce long-grain; PL = Provisia long-grain; LA = long-grain aromatic.

Soybean desiccant drift on late season rice

Tommy Butts

Some phone calls have started coming in asking about the impacts that soybean desiccant [Gramoxone (paraquat), Sharpen (saflufenacil), and salt (sodium chlorate)] drift will have on late season rice.  In addition, further questions have arisen about the impacts of potential drift of late season soybean herbicide applications to control grass escapes (glyphosate and clethodim) will have on rice at this stage.

First and foremost, our goal should be to NOT drift onto neighboring crops regardless of the potential or lack thereof for injury.  Herbicides, particularly systemic ones, can do some very crazy things from time to time when plants are in reproductive stages.  Minimizing the likelihood for drift (proper sprayer setup, waiting for the right wind direction, etc.) will help to mitigate potential problems such as yield loss or reductions in quality that can cause dockages or outright buying point refusals.

In the event that drift does occur onto our rice at this stage from a late season soybean application to control grasses or desiccate the crop, there’s a couple of things to watch out for.  First, minimal to no visual injury symptoms are typically observed from drift rates of herbicides when rice is in the reproductive stages.  The results of the drift incident will only be evident once the combine rolls through the field.

When it comes to yield loss, recent research out of Mississippi has shown that simulated drift rates of Gramoxone (paraquat) can cause some fairly significant yield losses and reductions in grain fill due to drift occurring anywhere from 50% heading (16-19% loss) up until one week prior to harvest (5% loss) (McCoy et al., 2021b).  Additionally, seed weight (grain fill) was reduced for all application timings of simulated paraquat drift except for one week prior to harvest.  Simulated drift rates of glyphosate caused reductions in yield (6-19% loss depending on timing), but no losses in grain fill occurred at any point from 50% heading to one week prior to harvest.  In contrast, simulated drift rates of Sharpen (saflufenacil) and salt had no effect on rice yield or grain fill.  Additional research suggested that inbred cultivars tended to be more sensitive or result in more yield loss from late season drift events of desiccant herbicides (McCoy et al., 2021a).

As we’re nearing the end of the season, and we see the light at the end of the tunnel, let’s make sure to take care to avoid these drift situations and allow everyone to finish off on a positive note. Good luck out there!

References:

McCoy, J., Golden, B., Bond, J., Dodds, D., Bararpour, T., & Gore, J. (2021a). Rice cultivar response to sublethal concentrations of glyphosate and paraquat late in the season. Weed Technology, 35(2), 251–257. https://doi.org/10.1017/wet.2020.112

McCoy, J., Golden, B., Bond, J., Dodds, D., Bararpour, T., & Gore, J. (2021b). Rice response to sublethal concentrations of paraquat, glyphosate, saflufenacil, and sodium chlorate at multiple late-season application timings as influenced by exposure. Weed Technology, 35(6), 980–990. https://doi.org/10.1017/wet.2021.61

Fig. 2.  Example of paraquat drift onto early season rice to show symptomology (later season drift may differ in appearance).

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

It was a week of give and take in the rice market.  After solid gains Tuesday and Wednesday for November futures, most of those were given back on Thursday with the contract closing 16 ½ lower at $17.67 ½.  At this writing Friday morning, November futures are trading 23 cents higher at $17.90 ½.  The market is flying blind regarding exports.  But there was plenty to talk about this week on the international scene with flooding in Pakistan impacting rice and rumors swirling in India over export restrictions.

Fig. 3.  CME Rough Rice Futures, November 2022 Daily Chart.

Overall, the November contract has been in an uptrend since July 5th.  Trading may turn dull in the upcoming week while waiting for USDA’s September assessment of the crop.  If Nov. futures can close above $18, the prospects look better for a return to the May 16^th high of $18.20.  That price level will serve as key resistance and more specifically, a “double top” for the Nov. ’22 contract.  Some added attention to marketing decisions is warranted if the November contract moves into the $18 to $18.20 price range.

The next USDA WASDE and Crop Production will be released September 12^th.  NASS is in the process of conducting its’ first objective field surveys.  One could argue the market’s rally has been driven by declining yield expectations, which seem reasonable given the unusual heat this growing season.  Furthermore, we could see some downward revision in rice acres based on the early findings in FSA’s acreage reporting.

In the cash market around eastern Arkansas, basis was steady this week.  For September / October delivery, basis at mills was 23 cents per bushel under November futures.  Mill bids Friday morning were near $7.83.  Basis at driers ranged this week from 29 to 36 cents per bushel under November, with bids Friday in the $7.70 to $7.77 range.

Crop Progress:

In Monday’s Crop Progress, USDA estimated the U.S. rice harvest at 18% complete for the week ending August 28^th, up from 15% the prior week.  Louisiana and Texas’ harvest had reached 67 and 77%, respectively.  Arkansas was at 4% percent harvested; slightly behind the 5-year average of 7 percent.  Harvest was getting underway in Mississippi with 2% harvested at the start of the week.

Table 2.  Rice Harvested (%).

Export Sales:

Thursday’s Export Sales report was delayed due to issues with USDA's new reporting system.  You may recall the confusion last week over USDA’s export sales reporting.  After the initial release, last Thursday’s report (8/25) was removed soon thereafter.  A few hours later the USDA issued a statement, explaining that errors in the report were due to the transition to a new reporting and maintenance system.

Unfortunately, the issues with export sales reporting haven’t been resolved.  In a second statement released August 31, USDA indicated they hoped to have the new system operational by September 15^th.  Below is a portion of their August 31 statement:

"As a result of unanticipated difficulties with the launch of the new Export Sales Reporting and Maintenance System, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service will temporarily revert to the legacy system while we work to fully resolve the issues with the new system.  FAS will be unable to publish weekly export sales data on Thursday, Sept. 1 or Thursday, Sept. 8, but we expect to resume regular reporting on Thursday, Sept. 15.”

The full statement from FAS can be found here:  Statement from FAS Administrator Daniel Whitley Regarding Weekly Export Sales Reporting

Fertilizer Market:

With nitrogen prices pulling back from the spring highs, we get a number of questions about coverage for 2023.  No two years are exactly alike and the current situation in eastern Europe adds a tremendous amount complexity to forecasting fertilizer prices.  Recently, we ran across an interesting article by DTN contributing writer, Elaine Kub Best Time of Year to Buy Fertilizer: Seasonal Patterns.  Her findings on urea indicate the first week of September has tended to show the lowest “z scores” or time of year with prices below the season average.  In fact, the period from August to December had negative z scores.  We found similar results constructing a seasonal index of retail urea prices collected by USDA (shown in the graph below).

Figure 4.  Retail Urea Seasonal Price Tendency, 2014 – 2020.

Source:  USDA AMS, Illinois Cost of Production Report.

Industry analysts believe urea prices will remain supported by nitrogen production outages in Europe.  Along with this outlook, some in industry are encouraging growers to go ahead and book at least a portion (25 to 50%) of 2023 nitrogen needs.  To support this advice, New Orleans (NOLA) urea prices are again working higher, trading in a range of $560 to $695 to start the week.  The prior week’s range was $542 to $578.  Driving this is ammonia, which has increased 15% so far in this quarter.  NOLA price direction generally drives inland urea prices.  Phosphate and potash prices at NOLA and inland were generally flat to lower last week.  There seems to be less urgency to move on phosphate and potash booking for 2023.

Farm Futures released the results of a 2023 acreage survey this week.  Indications are 2023 corn acres will increase 5% and winter wheat acres could increase 7.5%.  If true, this outlook could add further support to nitrogen prices.  At this writing, December ’23 corn trades at $6.14 and July ’23 wheat trades at $8.39.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.