Arkansas Rice Update 9-19-25

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - September 19, 2025

Arkansas Rice Update 2025-26

September 19, 2025

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“Don’t wanna discuss it, think it’s time for a change.”

Keep’em Guessing

What do you call a Rubic’s Cube crossed with a Magic 8-Ball?  2025…

Tremendous harvest progress over the past two weeks has improved general sentiment a great deal.  Hasn’t improved the attitude over the results, but getting the crop out with efficiency is a positive we can take away from things at the moment.

Rains began moving through the state to end the week with locations and amounts all over the board so it’s unknown what these will currently do to upcoming progress.  We had reached 60% harvested as of last Sunday and with these slowdowns today into the weekend we may arrive at 75% harvested as of this coming Sunday.  While that does sound very near the end, there is enough later planted rice that as usual the remaining acres will drag out over the next month.

Potentially large rainfall amounts over northern counties next week could result in the upcoming week turning into a wash.  A trend toward more normal, milder temperatures won’t hurt anyone’s feelings though.

No major changes on the side of yield and milling reports this week.  Both continue to be variable and leave questions to be answered.

This will be the last regularly scheduled weekly Rice Update.  Additional updates will only be sent out when or if they’re needed.  Good luck through the remainder of harvest.

Read on below for more information on updated preliminary ARPT results, futures, trade, and crop insurance.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  2012-2025 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

Preliminary 2025 ARPT Results Updated

Reminder that “preliminary” means the data hasn’t been fully processed and could change prior to final publication.  This data has been summarized quickly in an effort to report data as soon as possible.  One location remains to be harvested.

The RREC data is usually one of our strongest locations, but due to harvest delays beyond our control (combine problems) it wasn’t harvested timely.  The four on-farm locations of Clay, Desha, Greene, and Lawrence Counties were all in fields planted to DG263L (grower choice) and the reported dry yields to us were 190 bu/acre for Clay, 210 bu/acre for Desha, and 205 bu/acre for Greene – which align well with that variety in our plot data.

Table 1.  Preliminary Arkansas Rice Performance Trial (ARPT) results by location and planting date.

Grain:  L = long-grain; CL = Clearfield long-grain; PL = Provisia long-grain; ML = MaxAce long-grain; MLH = MaxAce long-grain hybrid; FLH = FullPage long-grain hybrid; LH = long-grain hybrid; M = medium-grain; CM = Clearfield medium-grain.

Locations:  RREC = Rice Research & Extension Center, Stuttgart; PTRS = Pine Tree Research Station, Colt; NEREC = Northeast Research & Extension Center, Keiser; CLA = grower field, McDougal, Clay Co.; DES = grower field, McGehee, Desha Co.; GRE = grower field, Paragould, Greene Co.; LAW = grower field, Walnut Ridge, Lawrence Co.

Market Update

Scott Stiles

Back and forth, rangebound trading this week with the November contract spending most of its time between $11.40 and $11.80/cwt.  The 20-day moving average sits at $11.80 and marks initial overhead resistance.  On the downside this week, decent support comes in at $11.40, although we did see trading down to $11.31 during Monday’s session.

Fig. 3.  CME November Rice Futures, Daily Chart.

We really need export demand to pick up.  Thursday’s Export Sales report indicates long-grain rough rice sales are 45% behind last year with sales to all our key markets lagging.  Rough rice business last week was lite with a 6,000-ton sale to Mexico making up the bulk of last week’s total of 6,641 tons.  The U.S. did have a decent 17,629-ton sale of milled rice to Haiti last week.  The market’s mission now is to find a price level that uncovers export demand.

Cash rice bids Friday morning for spot delivery were $4.75 to $4.90 per bushel around eastern Arkansas.  Basis levels improve considerably in early 2026.

Trade Talks:  Trump/Xi Call Friday Did Not Include Ag Trade

President Trump and China President Xi did visit by phone Friday (9/19).  Nothing ag-related was discussed.  There were indications Trump and Xi would meet at the APEC summit Oct. 30- Nov. 1, but no definite timetable for a trade deal announcement was mentioned.

Trump and Xi make progress on TikTok deal, plan to meet in South Korea

Mississippi River:

There continues to be plenty of discussion about the Mississippi River as it trends lower and is projected to be -8’ at Memphis by month end.  Dredging along the river has started south of Cairo and there have already been reports of barges running aground.  This makes four (4) years in a row we’ve seen critically low river levels at harvest.  Low water protocols are being implemented on barge traffic, which limits loading capacity.  Barge freight values on the Mississippi River have increased for six (6) consecutive weeks now.

Harvest Prices for 2025 Crop Insurance

Harvest crop insurance prices for rice are in the discovery period which runs for the entire month of September.  To date (as of September 18^th), the harvest price for long-grain is $11.70/cwt, which is almost 17% below the Spring price guarantee of $14.10/cwt.  Revenue-based crop insurance policies will use the higher of either the harvest price or the spring projected price to calculate indemnity payments.  The harvest price for long-grain is a running average of the November futures contracts' daily settlement during the month of September.  Revenue protection at the 85% coverage level appears likely to trigger a payment this year without a reported yield loss.  Follow the harvest price discovery at this link: USDA RMA Price Discovery.

Figure 4.  2025 Harvest Daily Prices, Long-Grain Rice.

U.S. Crop Progress

Rice harvest is near the endzone in Louisiana and Texas.  Above normal temperatures and dry conditions rapidly advanced Arkansas’ rice harvest 21 points last week to 60% harvested.  This is well ahead of the 5-year average of 42% harvested by mid-September.  Harvest progress in the Midsouth region is moving quickly as conditions ahead of Friday’s showers were very hot and dry with daytime highs approaching 100 degrees.  Temperatures are forecast to gravitate toward more normal levels in the week ahead.

Table 2.  Rice Harvested - Selected States (%).

More than half of September is the rearview mirror and fortunately it has been a quite hurricane season—at least in the Gulf.  The outlook as of Friday morning (9/19) has Tropical Storm Gabrielle forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Fig.  5.  Tropical Storm Gabrielle forecast.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2025 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2024 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.