Arkansas Rice Update 9-12-25

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - September 12, 2025

Arkansas Rice Update 2025-25

September 12, 2025

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“I wanna jump but I’m afraid I’ll fall.”

I Don’t Know is on Third

Harvest progress across the state continues to surge under clear weather.  While conditions have been great, this period of heating back up has had moisture levels dropping fast which brings back concerns of overdrying grain in the field.  Milling yields are still good but getting more variable with the changing weather.

Positive news would be that the forecast is open and clear for the coming week and more.  A cooling trend later next week will be welcome too.  It stands to reason that we’ll be well north of 50% harvested by this weekend, possibly topping 60%.  Yields continue to be erratic with so many questions out there (more on that below).

High yielding fields may help keep the overall average from dropping too low, but boy do they have to offset some seriously low yields that are out there too.

The Rice Delphacid continues to warrant some attention.  Since last week, we’ve noted this pest in counties across southern Arkansas including as far north as Pine Bluff in Jefferson County, and a minor find north of I-40 in Woodruff County.  And of all things, even finding them in research plots in Fayetteville.  They’re still late to the game in fields we’ve found them in so far (other than the first find in southwest), but we need to continue monitoring.

Read on below for more information on inconsistent rice yields, preliminary ARPT results, and markets.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  2012-2025 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

Inconsistent Rice Yields

Jarrod Hardke

This week I posted article discussing Inconsistent Rice Yields – follow the link to read.

I also posted a podcast Rice & Advice: Inconsistent Rice Yields for those that would rather listen to me talk about it (and no it’s not just me reading what I posted on the blog).  Like our other podcast episodes, you can also find it wherever you normally listen to podcasts on Arkansas Row Crops Radio.

Preliminary 2025 ARPT Results

Reminder that “preliminary” means the data hasn’t been fully processed and could change prior to final publication.  This data has been summarized quickly in an effort to report data as soon as possible.  Three locations remain to be harvested.

The RREC data is usually one of our strongest locations, but due to harvest delays beyond our control (combine problems) it wasn’t harvested timely.  The three on-farm locations of Clay, Desha, and Greene Counties were all in fields planted to DG263L (grower choice) and the reported dry yields to us were 190 bu/acre for Clay, 210 bu/acre for Desha, and 205 bu/acre for Greene – which align well with that variety in our plot data.

Table 1.  Preliminary Arkansas Rice Performance Trial (ARPT) results by location and planting date.

Grain:  L = long-grain; CL = Clearfield long-grain; PL = Provisia long-grain; ML = MaxAce long-grain; MLH = MaxAce long-grain hybrid; FLH = FullPage long-grain hybrid; LH = long-grain hybrid; M = medium-grain; CM = Clearfield medium-grain.

Locations:  RREC = Rice Research & Extension Center, Stuttgart; NEREC = Northeast Research & Extension Center, Keiser; CLAY = grower field, McDougal, Clay Co.; DESHA = grower field, McGehee, Desha Co.; GREENE = grower field, Paragould, Greene Co.

Market Update

Scott Stiles

A few observations from the September 12^th USDA reports:  Adjustments to the old crop (24/25) long-grain balance sheet were friendly.  Domestic use and exports were both increased by a combined total of 3.2 million cwt.  The net result was a 2.5 million cwt. reduction in old crop ending stocks.

Along with a reduction in new crop beginning stocks, production was also lowered by .8 million cwt.  State average yields were reduced in Arkansas and Texas this month.  Imports were increased by 1 million to a record 44 million cwt.  However, total long-grain supply did fall this month by 2.2 million to 235.1 million cwt.

Domestic use of long grain is projected at 134 million; down 1 million from last month and 1.9 million from last year.  Exports at 64 million were reduced 3 million from last month on a sluggish start to rough rice export sales.  As a result of these changes, long-grain ending stocks remain very close to last year at 37.1 million cwt.; up 1.8 million cwt. from last month’s forecast.

Table 2.  U.S. Long-Grain Supply and Demand.

2025/26 Price Outlook:

The 2025/26 season-average farm price for long-grain is now projected at $12.00 per cwt, down $1.00 from last month.  Under this price outlook, the projected PLC payment rate would be $2.21 per bushel for the 2025 crop.  USDA’s current outlook for 2025 PLC payment rates can be found at this link:  https://www.fsa.usda.gov/documents/2025-plc-pdf

Links to September 12 USDA reports:

USDA September 2025 WASDE 

USDA NASS Crop Production

USDA FSA Crop Acreage Data

None of Friday’s USDA reports were particularly friendly to the rice market.  As mentioned, new crop ending stocks increased this month mainly on poor export demand.  NASS found a few more acres of long-grain in the Midsouth with Arkansas’ harvested acreage increasing by 20,000 and Louisiana increasing by 5,000 acres.  However, there were yield reductions that offset the additional acres.  Arkansas average rice yield was lowered by 50 pounds and Texas was lowered by 100 pounds this month.  Following the release of the USDA reports at 11:00 a.m., November rice futures quickly made new contract lows, trading down to $11.40 ½.  That is the lowest trade for the November contract since July 2020.  Near the close of trading Friday, cash rice bids for spot delivery were in the $4.75 to $4.90/bu range in eastern Arkansas.

Fig. 3.  CME November Rice Futures, Monthly Continuation Chart.

Table 4.  Rice Harvested - Selected States (%).

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2025 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2024 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.