Arkansas Rice Update 8-9-24

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - August 9, 2024

Arkansas Rice Update 2024-18

August 9, 2024

Jarrod Hardke and Scott Stiles

“It was a beautiful day, the sun beat down…”

Fire in the Hole

Harvest is officially off and rolling now.  Early yield reports are positive and optimistic – nothing earth shattering or record-breaking, but all comments have been happy ones and in line with grower expectations.  Not that there are all that many reports received so far, but enough to feel good about this early start setting the tone for good expectations on this crop.

I commented at a few meetings this week that for those who may not have started harvest yet, your rice may be further along than you think.  I typically see the first fields we get into in the 19-22% moisture range, but this year these first fields are running 17-20% moisture.  So, we need to avoid getting behind the 8-ball again this year letting grain moisture run away from us.  The penalty will be lower milling yields, again.  In 2022, the weather bailed us out and didn’t penalize us as much for overdry grain; but in 2023 the weather made us pay.

There aren’t enough milling yields to make a lot of yet, but they’re a little underwhelming so far (but better than last year).  I’m not making too much of it at this point, it’s not uncommon for the earliest planted fields to have a little lower milling even in years where we end up with great milling overall.  So we’ll see.

Per Nick Bateman – rice stink bugs are picking up in rice that’s just now heading.  No big numbers, but they are starting to move out of yellow rice and into green rice.  Watch out for increasing numbers in those fields over the next week.

We’ll continue addressing any issues as they pop up rolling into harvest, but we may be entering that stretch where harvest is all we have to say much about.  We hope anyway.  Disease and insect issues have trended on the low side, and hopefully weather will work in our favor.

A few comments this week on drain timing of row rice – as a reminder, the safe approach is to irrigate row rice when the rice at the stage you would normally drain levee rice.  With warm temps and no rain in the forecast, it’s often advisable to irrigated one more time after that point to be sure there’s enough water in the profile for row rice to safely finish out.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

B.R. Wells Arkansas Rice Research Studies 2023 now available

https://wordpressua.uark.edu/aaes/files/2024/08/705_BR_Wells_Arkansas_Rice_Research_Studies_2023.pdf

Ricing Around

Jarrod Hardke

Harvest Aids (Salt):

Recommendations for applying sodium chlorate (salt) to rice:

Varieties should be below 25% grain moisture before applying sodium chlorate.

Hybrids should be below 23% grain moisture before applying sodium chlorate.

Complete harvest in 5 days or less after application of sodium chlorate.  Waiting longer can allow heavy dew and/or rain events to cause milling issues.  Also, the entire panicle can get drier, becoming more susceptible to shattering.

Once moisture falls below 18%, exercise caution when using sodium chlorate.  Long-grains don’t seem to have as much risk below 18%, but medium grains should NOT be salted once they fall below 18%.

If salting long-grain at lower moistures, consider using a lower rate of sodium chlorate.

DO NOT salt rice solely on the basis of rapidly lowering grain moisture and expect a major moisture reduction.  In research trials, whether harvested 3 or 7 days after application, salted plots were typically only 2% lower grain moisture than plots that weren’t salted.

Fig. 2.  Research plots receiving sodium chlorate (right) versus untreated check.

Sooty Mold vs Kernel Smut:

This is not a current issue in Arkansas, but I had a conversation with some Louisiana folks and thought I would take an opportunity to address it now.

Sooty mold is a situation where opportunistic fungi can develop on the outer portions of the grain and leaves once rice becomes more mature and rainy weather sets in.  It can still turn the combine black and give the impression of kernel smut, but there is not smut in the grain.

In contrast, kernel smut forms inside the hull, affecting yield, milling, and grade.  Kernel smut is most obvious in the early morning while dew is still on and the smut swells out of the grains it is infecting.

It sounds as though there is quite a bit of sooty mold in south Louisiana following an extended rainy period.  If there is not smut obvious in grains, and no reductions in grade are occurring at the mill, then you can be more confident that it’s sooty mold rather than kernel smut.

Fig. 3.  Kernel smut (left) versus sooty mold (right).

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

Market Update:

Headline of the week:  Iraq Resumes Purchases of U.S. Rice

Monday (8/12), the August USDA supply/demand numbers as well as NASS Crop Production will be released at 11:00 a.m.  The August Crop Production estimates will be based on farmer surveys, satellite data and weather trends but will not include actual field inspections until the September report.

Per industry sources, there may be potential acreage adjustments to long-grain and some are expecting a slight reduction.  USDA will use FSA certified acreage data that was collected by July 15 in this month's report.  Based on the historically strong crop conditions for Arkansas and the U.S crop overall, a modest yield increase would not be surprising.

Links to Monday’s key USDA reports:

August 2024 WASDE Report (Release time: 11:00 PM Central, August 12)

Crop Production

FSA Crop Acreage Data

As a reminder, Diesel futures are still trading near the lows of the year.  No two years are alike, but Diesel futures did make new highs in September last year when harvest started gaining some momentum.  As a side note, when you tally the total 2023 crop remaining to move plus the anticipated 2024 corn and soybean production, a record volume of grain will be handled this fall.  That takes a lot of fuel.  Although diesel futures are roughly a dime above the early week lows, current price levels still present an opportunity to lock-in fall fuel needs.

NYMEX Diesel Futures, Daily Nearby Contract

Mississippi River at Memphis:

The graph below provides a look at the August 9^th forecast for the Mississippi River gauge at Memphis.  It is expected to fall to zero (0) by August 22^nd.  This is a very similar pattern to what we’ve seen the last two years at the onset of harvest.  A continuation on this path of declining river depth will no doubt weaken the grain basis at river terminals.  Visit with your local elevator about managing basis risk and the mechanics of using a basis contract.

CME Rough Rice, Sep24, daily chart

Friday (8/9) morning’s futures trading was softer ahead of Monday’s USDA reporting.  The August report should set the market tone for the upcoming week as well as early harvest yield reports.  Monday’s government reporting could provide some production surprises with adjustments to acres and yields.  However, August is generally a quiet month in terms of demand adjustments.

New crop rice basis remains steady and so far, immune to the outlook for the Mississippi River.  As of Thursday’s close, fall delivery bids (Aug.-Oct.) at mills averaged $6.50/bu around eastern Arkansas and bids at dryers ranged from $6.36 to $6.43 per bushel.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2024 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2023 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.