Arkansas Rice Update 8-30-24

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - August 30, 2024

Arkansas Rice Update 2024-21

August 30, 2024

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“Whoa, I feel good!”

Full Throttle

The rapid pace of rice harvest continues as expected.  With another hot and dry week under our belts, we can expect the upcoming progress report to rival 2010 and 2012 for being above 40% harvested by this point in the season.  Those two years would be the fastest on record (with records going back to the early 80s).

So far, so good in terms of grain yield reports coming in.  Consistent reports of very strong yields with some rivaling or setting their own personal records.  There is still more than half of the crop to cut, but we’re definitely on the right track.

Overall milling yields seem to have now settled into an “average” range.  Which is to say not too great but not too bad.  “Better than last year” is a regular comment – which is a good thing, but still leaves room for improvement.

The forecast for the upcoming week doesn’t look extremely positive, with an unsettled weekend followed by strong rain chances in the middle of the week.  So progress may be tempered in the near future.  Additionally, so much rice has been drying very rapidly due to the heat that we’re harvesting some fairly low moisture rice – which isn’t good for milling.  Add in the potential for some soaking rains on some dry rice, and we have the makings of some hurt put on that rice from re-wetting and drying.  Let’s hope not, but it’s a real concern.

Last night (8/29) a strong storm with high winds moved across parts of southeast and central Arkansas dropping varied amounts of rain.  And doing varied amounts of lodging to rice.  Most seems to have made it through ok and appears more “fluffy” than down, but some is flat and falls into the “no fun zone”.  We don’t need anymore events like that one.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  2012-2024 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

More Preliminary 2024 DD50 Planting Date Study Results

Reminder that “preliminary” means the data hasn’t been fully processed and could change prior to publication.  This week includes the addition of the first two planting dates from Harrisburg (NERREC) to go along with the first two planting dates from Stuttgart (RREC).

Table 1.  Preliminary DD50 Planting Date Studies, RREC, Stuttgart, AR and NERREC, Harrisburg, AR.

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

As a reminder, the commodity markets will be closed Monday, September 2 for Labor Day.  November Rice futures traded in a range of $14.75 to $15.20 this week.  It is somewhat discouraging to see Thursday’s sharp downturn that now puts the Nov contract solidly below all the key moving average lines.  Thursday’s Export Sales report was a bit lackluster.  For the week ending August 22^nd, long-grain rough rice sales totaled 15,725 tons.  There were sales to three (3) markets:  Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico.  Overall, long-grain sales are running 22% ahead of last year on a metric ton basis.  Rough rice sales to Mexico and Central America are doing the heavy lifting though while milled rice sales lag behind on lower volume business thus far to Haiti and Iraq.

CME November 2024 Rough Rice Futures.

The very rapid harvest of the 2024 crop and favorable yield reports have been a bearish fundamental for the rice market this week.  Harvest progress for all major rice producing states is well out in front of historical averages.  In last Monday’s Crop Progress, Arkansas was 23% harvested compared to the 5-year average of just 4 percent.  Given this week’s dry weather, Arkansas might now be on par with 2010 or 2012 which were 47% and 44% harvested by the first weekend in September.

There is a pair of tropical disturbances forming in the Atlantic that might grab the rice market’s attention next week.  The first system is expected to take aim at the Gulf of Mexico.  At the present time, there is a 40 to 60% probability of this developing into a cyclone.  Impacts from this storm activity is not expected to hit the Gulf until late next week at the earliest.

Harvesting Costs:

The table below shows estimated harvesting costs for rice.  These estimates are also useful for determining custom rates.  Total Costs include depreciation, interest, repairs, fuel, and labor.  Allowances for profit are not included in Total Costs.  Custom harvesting rates should cover costs and include some margin for profit.  Adding 10 to 15 percent to Total Costs is appropriate when determining custom rates.

Table 1. 2024 Estimated Rice Harvesting Costs.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2024 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2023 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.