Arkansas Rice Update 8-28-26

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - August 28, 2026

Arkansas Rice Update 2026-24

August 28, 2026

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“Although we had no money I was rich as I could be.”

Slow News is Good News

Heading into the time of year where I hope to have little to report, and this is mostly true this week.  Harvest pace continues to increase, and seems to be picking up more dramatic speed.  The official progress number this past Monday (8/23) was 16% but it’s looking like we’re seeing a big jump beyond that now, so next week I expect to see 30+% harvested in the progress report.  Some areas are definitely over 40% harvested now so that total progress shouldn’t be too much of a stretch.

Yield reports remain mostly solid with some scattered question marks to figure out.  To date it’s much calmer than last year when yield issues were popping up left and right.  Milling yields, while early, appear to be trending better than this time last year.  Rains last weekend and early this week may have had an impact on some drier rice out there, but much of our rice was still at solid moisture levels to prevent issues.

The bigger issue from the storms was lodging.  A decent stretch of northeast Arkansas saw high winds with their rain and it’s not difficult to have whole fields, edges, or large portions of fields with rice in various stages of lodging.  This dry forecast is exactly what is needed to take care of those, but always more expensive to cut.  A little later green rice wasn’t as lucky and will be dealt with carefully to protect still filling heads.

Summer refuses to put the heat away, but a dry forecast this time of year is difficult to get angry with.  We may or may not have 100 degree days but there sure are a lot of 98s and 99s in the extended forecast.  Stay hydrated!

Most other news is quiet.  If you have rice that’s still green, rice stink bugs are on the increase.  Typical late season shift into rice that’s still green enough to eat.

Hopefully next week we’ll be able to start sharing some preliminary results from planting date trials and ARPTs.

See more below on futures, harvest progress, and diesel.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  Arkansas rice 2026 harvest progress.

Fig. 3.  Lodged rice in northeast Arkansas.

Market Update

Scott Stiles

The “V” shaped recovery continues this week as the November 2026 contract makes new highs.  On a continuation basis, November futures are trading at the highest levels since June 2024.  The chart below (Fig. 4), is a weekly continuation chart.  This provides a look at the long-term price action of multiple November contracts across the last five (5) years.  In this timespan, the November contract has traded to a high of $18.20 (May 2022) and a low of $9.85 (Oct. 2025).  Technical traders closely watch for retracements of large downtrends such as we’ve seen since 2022.  Many of the key retracement levels have already been surpassed in the last month.  The 50% retracement of $14.03 and the 62% retracement of $15.01 have been passed by.  The next key objective could be the 76% retracement at $16.23?  It is clear the November contract currently has strong bullish momentum.  Further upside cannot be ruled out.

Fig. 4.  CME November Rough Rice, Weekly Continuation.

Rice Harvest Progress:

Monday’s Crop Progress from NASS confirmed rice harvest is actively underway across the Southern states.  Louisiana’s harvest is roughly 85% complete and Texas is about 70% done.  For Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri, harvest is gaining momentum in the endless summer.  As of August 23^rd, Arkansas was 16% harvested compared to the 5-year average of 9 percent.  Mississippi was 20% harvested and Missouri was 4% harvested—both ahead of last year and the average pace.  As the calendar flips to September, extreme heat and dry conditions remain in the forecast for the Delta.  Temperatures are currently expected to reach 100 degrees for much of the upcoming week.

Table 1.  U.S. Rice Harvest - Selected States (% harvested).

 Source: USDA NASS.

 Diesel: Situation and Outlook

With harvest underway, growers are fully aware of diesel prices.  Bulk farm-delivery (dyed) diesel prices are currently hovering between $4.50 and $4.60 per gallon depending on the supplier and order volume.  These costs are nearly double what most producers plugged into their initial 2026 crop budgets.

Included below is a one (1) year daily chart of NYMEX diesel futures.  The lead month currently trades around $4.34 per gallon.  A year ago, prices were a full $2 less at $2.27 per gallon.

Fig. 5.  NYMEX Diesel, Daily Nearby contract.

With the U.S. harvest ramping up, any significant relief in diesel prices may not show up until late 2026.  At present, U.S. inventories of diesel and heating oil for the month of August are the lowest since 1982.  International issues with Iran and Russia are not offering any relief to the energy markets either.  In the current domestic supply and political environment, farm diesel is expected to fluctuate between $4.50 and $4.80 per gallon through September and October.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2026 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2025 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.