Arkansas Rice Update 8-23-24

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - August 23, 2024

Arkansas Rice Update 2024-20

August 23, 2024

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, Jason Norsworthy, & Bob Scott

“The moon is bright and you’re alright down here.”

Climbing the Harvest Ladder

Crops are disappearing fast in certain areas while others are just really starting to pick up steam this week.  Harvest progress should easily top 20% in Monday’s upcoming report.  Given the outlook for the next week, it will be amazing how much gets out of the field as grain moistures are beginning to fall rapidly on the heels of the cooler, dry air we enjoyed for much of this week.  Now we’ll get more sun and heat to cook out the rest.

The longer outlook in the 8-14 day range calls for more average temperatures and the potential for some rainfall.  As dry as some of this rice is already starting to get in places that could spell bad news for quality.

Interestingly so far, milling yields have continued to be underwhelming.  At this early stage, I still don’t have an answer for that.  As far as an idea, the couple periods of milder temperatures with overcast conditions that occurred over the past month may have prevented grains from finishing up as firmly and strongly as we would normally expect.  We’ll study on this topic more as we get deeper into harvest – with low stink bug numbers and limited periods of high nighttime temperature concern we would expect better milling yields.

On the positive side – early yields continue to be strong around the state.  There are always hiccup fields, but the vast majority of yield reports are very positive.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  2012-2024 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

USA Rice Leadership Development Program

The deadline for applications for the next USA Rice Leadership Development Program class is September 6.  This program gives future leaders a comprehensive understanding of the rice industry, with an emphasis on personal development and communication skills.  To be eligible, applicants must derive their primary livelihood as rice producers or from a rice industry-related profession or firm, including rice mills, rice product marketers, sales officials, suppliers, dryers, extension services, research facilities, etc.  Participants from the industry-related category must serve the rice industry in their primary job responsibility.  Applicants must be between the ages of 25 to 45 at the time of application.  For more information:  https://www.usarice.com/foundation/leadership-program

Preliminary 2024 DD50 Planting Date Study Results

Reminder that “preliminary” means the data hasn’t been fully processed and could change prior to publication.  While this data is for the Stuttgart location, the first two planting dates at Harrisburg will be harvested next week.

Table 1.  Preliminary DD50 Planting Date Studies, RREC, Stuttgart, AR.

Rice Harvest Loss Behind the Combine

Jarrod Hardke

Table 2 provides a generalized estimate of converting rice kernel counts to harvest loss.  There’s a process for arriving at an accurate average number though.

The most accurate way to do the count is to count a 10 ft² area across the entire header width.  For a 30 ft header, that’s an area 30 ft wide x 4 inches.  Not a real feasible or convenient count to make.

Instead, it may be much more straightforward to take a few simple counts from respective areas behind the machine.

For a 30-ft header, think of it as having three 10-ft sections.  Take a single square foot count in the center of each of these 10-ft sections.  Add the three counts and divide them by three to give you an average per square foot.

Remember to count any kernels already on the ground in an unharvested area to deduct from your count that has already shattered on the ground.

Table 2.  Converting rice field loss counts into bushels per acre.

Herbicide-Resistant Weed Samples

Jason Norsworthy & Bob Scott

As harvest gets in full swing, now is often a good time to collect samples from possible herbicide-resistant weed populations.  The primary weeds to be evaluated are barnyardgrass, Pennsylvania smartweed, weedy rice, and white-margined flatsedge.

Barnyardgrass samples will be screened against Roundup, Command, Facet, Newpath, Regiment, Ricestar, and Propanil.

Smartweed samples will be screened against Gambit and Regiment.

Weedy rice samples will be screened against Newpath, Provisia, and Rogue.

To submit samples:

1. Collect 40-50 seedheads from a field.

2. Place seedheads in a paper bag.

3. If submitting multiple samples, keep in separate, labeled bags.

4. Allow seedheads to dry for ~7 days.

5. Do not use plastic bags or sealed bags as seeds can rot.

6. Complete a herbicide resistance screening form for each sample (obtain at county Extension office).

7. Submit samples and forms to county Extension office.

Samples must be received by Nov. 15 – anything after that date will not be screened.  Results are typically ready in early March.

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

Monday’s Crop Progress report from NASS included harvest estimates as of August 18^th.  Harvest of the 2024 crop continues to advance faster than last year as well as the 5-year average.  Tropical activity in the U.S. Gulf has been surprisingly low-key this year considering earlier forecasts.  Currently there are no organized systems in the Atlantic.

Table 3.  Rice Harvest - Selected States (% harvested).

November Rice futures shot 25 cents higher Monday and has since then settled into a range between $14.80 and $15. When reviewing the rally that occurred from July 19^th to August 1^st, trading this week has retraced 50% to 62% of that price move.  For the time being, $14.80 is initial support.

Fig. 3.  CME November 2024 Rough Rice Futures.

Thursday’s Export Sales report didn’t provide much fuel as long-grain business was quiet last week.  There were two rough rice sales of 5,000 tons each reported to Guatemala and Honduras.  Thus far, rough rice sales are off to a very strong start in 24/25 with just over 331,000 tons sold compared to 142,893 a year ago.

There was one rough rice shipment last week of 25,092 tons to Mexico.  Regarding rail shipping to Mexico, effective from August 21 to September 20, BNSF Railway (BNSF) will not issue any permits for grain shuttle trains destined to Mexico.  Service to Mexico by other railroads (i.e., Union Pacific Railroad or CPKC) is expected to continue during the Aug. 21 to Sept. 20 timeframe.

Milled rice sales last week were limited with Haiti, Iraq and Saudi Arabia all absent.  A total of 1,924 tons were sold to four (4) markets, most of which was to Mexico.  Milled rice sales are 39% behind last year with 132,258 tons sold compared with 216,779 a year ago.

Optimism from early yield reports and the open stretch of weather for harvest will be a fundamental headwind for the rice market.  However, the cash basis for rice has remained steady this month.  As of Friday, spot delivery bids at mills were hovering around $6.50/bu for August to October delivery.

As the Mississippi River continues to slide lower, the basis for corn and soybeans has turned weaker this month.  At some locations along the Mississippi River, the corn basis has weakened about 30 cents this month and soybeans 43 cents.  Current forecasts have the Mississippi River at Memphis dropping to its “low threshold” of -5 feet by September 6^th.  The weather outlook has Midsouth harvest advancing well into next week without interruption.  Barge freight rates are increasing.  And, if the Mississippi River continues to head lower, expect additional weakness in corn and soybean basis over the upcoming month.

Fuel Market:

The chart below provides a look at nearby diesel futures over the past year.  This week’s trading has been in the $2.23 to $2.33 range.  The $2.23 trade is the lowest point diesel has traded since late May 2023.  The energy markets tend to be volatile and can turn sharply higher on unforeseen geopolitical events.  Plus, with harvest ramping up in the U.S. there will be increased demand for diesel over the next few months.

Fig. 4.  Diesel nearby futures.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2024 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2023 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.