Arkansas Rice Update 8-22-25

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - August 22, 2025

Arkansas Rice Update 2025-22

August 22, 2025

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“Sometimes I can’t help the feeling that I’m living a life of illusion.”

Bittersweet

Some good things to say about progress, some bad things to say about the market.  That’s about it in a short update this week.  There has been little happening over the past week other than draining rice and trying to shift gears into harvest.  With the majority of rice in the state planted mid-April and beyond this year, most is just starting to get harvest-ready, meaning a major increase in harvest progress may be coming next week, weather-permitting.

“Weather-permitting” may seem a strange term to use right now given how long it’s been hot and dry, but a major drop in temperatures beginning Monday with highs in the 80s and 70s(!) also includes some rain chances.  Honestly it seems a hair untimely, but it may be just the slowdown we need so that rice grain moisture doesn’t fall out too quickly and put us where we were last year harvesting extremely dry, brittle grain.

Milling yields to date have not been great, but better than last year and showing some improvement.  As we get into the major wave of harvest with milder harvest weather, maybe it will improve some more.  I’m still not expecting phenomenal milling – all those hot nights and days still have an impact on grain (chalk and thin kernels) which make grains weaker – but being able to harvest grain at more optimal moisture could reduce some of the problems.

On grain yields – still some excellent yields being reported, and some not so great, and all points in between.  The variability continues…

Read on below for more information on estimating harvest loss, markets, and machinery cost estimates.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  2012-2025 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

Ricing Around

Jarrod Hardke

Rice Harvest Loss Behind the Combine

Table 1 provides a generalized estimate of converting rice kernel counts to harvest loss.  There’s a process for arriving at an accurate average number though.

The most accurate way to do the count is to count a 10 ft² area across the entire header width.  For a 30 ft header, that’s an area 30 ft wide x 4 inches.  Not a real feasible or convenient count to make.

Instead, it may be much more straightforward to take a few simple counts from respective areas behind the machine.

For a 30-ft header, think of it as having three 10-ft sections.  Take a single square foot count in the center of each of these 10-ft sections.  Add the three counts and divide them by three to give you an average per square foot.

Remember to count any kernels already on the ground in an unharvested area to deduct from your count what has already shattered on the ground.

Table 1.  Converting rice field loss counts into bushels per acre.

Market Update

Scott Stiles

Ouch!  After a late session collapse Wednesday, the rice market is still trying to find its’ footing.  Managed money was holding a record net short position in rice two weeks ago.  A small portion of that was liquidated last week.  That turned the market higher at least until the August 12^th USDA reporting.  As we mentioned last week, NASS found 52,000 more acres of long-grain and that bumped new crop production a bit higher.  Plus, beginning stocks were increased, which is a reflection of the lousy export demand.  With nothing positive from a fundamental standpoint, the market made a “key reversal down” August 12^th.

With continued weak export demand and heavy old crop stocks still hanging over the market, it appears the speculative short position increased again this week.  We’ll find out Friday afternoon in the Commitment of Traders report.  As of this writing Friday morning, rice futures have slipped $1/cwt since last Friday’s close and the November contract now trades at the lowest point since December 2020.  Harvest is marching north, and cash rice prices have slipped below $5/bu. at many locations this week.

Fig. 3.  CME November 2025 Rice Futures, Daily Chart.

Rice Stocks

Reality hit hard Wednesday with NASS’ Rice Stocks report.  The report confirmed what we already knew: growers were still sitting on a lot of old crop rice.  For the U.S., rough rice stocks in all positions (on-farm and off-farm) on August 1, 2025 totaled 44.6 million hundredweight (cwt), up 35 percent from the total on August 1, 2024.

Arkansas producers were holding 4.29 million cwt. (over 9.5 million bushels) in on-farm storage as of August 1.  We thought that might be a record amount.  The highest in recent years was 4.5 million cwt. in 2019.  This year is, however, the second highest August 1 stocks in the last 20 years for Arkansas.  Link to this week’s Rice Stocks report from NASS: Rice Stocks

Fig. 4.  Arkansas On-Farm Rice Stocks as of Aug. 1, 2019-2025.

source: USDA NASS, Rice Stocks, August 2025.

Export Sales

For the week ending August 14, there were no sales of long-grain rough rice.  However, the U.S. did have a few decent sales of long-grain milled rice last week, with 8,100 tons sold to Haiti and 9,958 tons sold to Saudi Arabia, with smaller volume sales to Mexico and Canada.  New crop rough rice sales are off to a very slow start, already 59% behind last year.  Long-grain milled rice sales are trailing last year by 11 percent in the early weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year.

U.S. Rice Harvest

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions advanced the U.S. rice harvest ahead of the 5-year average in Monday’s Crop Progress.  Harvest in Texas was 57% complete as of August 17^th.  Louisiana had nearly 2/3 of their crop harvested.  Arkansas’ was 4% harvested as of last Sunday; behind last year but on par with the average pace.

Table 2.  Rice Harvested - Selected States (%).

Machinery Cost Estimates

This week we’ve posted an update of the fact sheet “Estimating Farm Machinery Costs” .  It provides detailed cost estimates for different tractors, tillage, planting, and harvesting equipment.  This information may also be used in estimating custom rates.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2025 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2024 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.