Arkansas Rice Update 8-2-24

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - August 2, 2024

Arkansas Rice Update 2024-17

August 2, 2024

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, Nick Bateman, and Ben Thrash

“A little less conversation, a little more action, please.”

Well, We’re Waiting

At least one combine rolled in rice in Arkansas this week, though it was expected that it would’ve had more company.  A lot of talk about starting harvest this week continues, which all seems to be setting up for a potentially bigger start this coming Monday.

Things are cooking now and it looks as though that will continue through next week.  Which sets the table in an excellent way for an early start to harvest as the crop catches up from last week’s slowdown.  Forecasts have begun to temper expectations for overnight lows – meaning it now appears they will remain a little cooler than was being forecast earlier in the week.  This is a great thing for the rice out there that’s still in grain fill stages, hopefully keeping grain quality up.

As more and more rice is getting ready to drain – remember to not get too far ahead of yourself.  Yes, it takes a little while for the ground to dry up, but under the conditions expected for the next 10 days it will go quicker than you think.  Consider staggering your drain efforts more – it’s not the first fields you drain and harvest, it’s the later ones that will get you.  Just because a lot is ready to drain at once doesn’t mean we should; stagger draining in a way that better reflects harvest pace to preserve the crop.

For fields that have a little further to go, I like keeping water moving through the fields under these hot, dry, sunny conditions.  Stagnant water heats up more so this should cool plants more, and the added bonus is ensuring we don’t get behind on water and create any late hot spots as we finish fields up.

Good luck and be careful with the start of harvest – remember folks will have to get used to sharing the road with equipment and trucks again this time of year!

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Field Day Reminders:

Aug. 8 – Rice Field Day – Northeast Rice Research & Extension Center, Harrisburg, AR – registration and breakfast at 7:30 a.m. followed by field tours at 8 a.m.

https://aaes.uada.edu/events/2024-field-days/nerrec-field-day/

Rice Stink Bug Termination

Nick Bateman and Ben Thrash

Over the past several days we have received multiple calls on rice stink bug (RSB) termination timing.  We have done quite a bit of work on this and have determined that when we hit 60% straw-colored kernels on a panicle, the chances of getting peck decrease substantially and we can terminate RSB applications (Fig. 2).  This work involved caging RSB on individual panicles where they were forced to feed to survive.  This would be considered a worst-case scenario.  The peck numbers in these studies are much higher than what we would expect to see in a field setting.  We do want to be pretty clean going into 60% straw coloration, because at high populations of RSB some damage can occur after 60% straw-colored kernels.  The only time we will not recommend terminating at 60% is if we have several days of rain in the forecast.  This can soften kernels and make it easier for RSB to damage kernels that would otherwise be past the point of being susceptible to rice stink bugs.

**Remember – when we say 60% straw-colored kernels – we mean when 60% of kernels are no longer green.  Don’t get caught up on shades of yellow.**

If applications are needed at this time, we have options to consider.  The numbers we are hearing about and seeing in our plots right now are right at threshold (10 RSB on 10 sweeps) or maybe slightly higher.  In these cases, lambda-cyhalothrin (Warrior II, Kendo, Lambda-Cy) is still a good cheap option.  While the overall efficacy is not great with lambda compared to several years ago, it still consistently provides 50-60% control of RSB and at this timing with threshold level RSB that is good enough.  Once we start exceeding 15 plus RSB on 10 sweeps, options like Tenchu should be considered.  Feel free to reach out to use if there are any questions.

Fig. 2.  Damage (peck) caused by rice stink bug feeding.

Ratoon Questions

Jarrod Hardke

We don’t often get a shot for even much conversation around attempting a ratoon crop in rice, but as it stands now there is some opportunity for it.  Here are a few general guidelines if you’re thinking about attempting a ratoon crop based on our limited observations in the state and some of the guidance provided by LSU in their gulf region.

• Nitrogen

  • Harvest prior to Aug. 15 – consider applying 45 lb N (100 lb urea).

  • Harvest after Aug. 15 – ZERO N should be applied.

  • Harvest after Sept. 1 – highly unlikely a viable ratoon crop can be made.

  • For reference – LSU recommends applying 90 lb N if harvest occurs prior to Aug. 15; from Aug. 15 to Sept. 1 use decreasing rates; after Sept. 1 apply zero N.

  • In Arkansas with current cultivars, we have no business applying more than 100 lb urea at any time when attempting a ratoon crop – the maturity delay will be too great.

  • The more N we apply the greater the yield potential, but the later the maturity and decreasing likelihood that we mature the crop out.

• Stubble height

  • Harvest rice so that 8-12 inches of stubble height is left.

  • The taller the stubble is left the faster the ratoon crop will come on, but the lower the yield potential.

• Flooding

  • Reestablish a shallow flood as quickly as possible after main crop harvest and keep it wet.

• Yield expectations

  • Range from 25-75 bu/acre. And some that press too late may not make a harvestable crop.

  • We don’t have any recent ratoon plot data (last was in 2018). General expectations should be that milling yields will below but that quality will be excellent.

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

Fuel:

It’s hard to read an article these days and not see “input costs” mentioned.  We wanted to point out the downtrend this month in diesel prices.  The September diesel futures contract has dropped about 33 to 34 cents this month.  At the time of this writing Friday morning, trading is about 3 cents above the early June lows.  As harvest kicks off, this may be a good time to lay off some fuel risk with a potential retaliation from Iran against Israel looming.

NYMEX Diesel Futures, Sept. 2024

Driving the pullback in diesel, crude oil prices are down about $10/barrel this month.  WTI is trading near $73.50/bbl – down from $84.52 during the first week of July.  For now, the Mideast concerns have been pushed aside and oil market is more focused on a slowing economy.  It’s safe to assume the oil market will be volatile and ready to surge higher if military action heats up between Israel and Iran.  When fuel prices are near the lows of the year, it may be advisable to get some harvest fuel locked in.

Rice:

A wild week in the rice market that can be characterized by Thursday’s 58 cent trading range.  Tough to explain that roller coaster.  Friday’s trading is much narrower and is back and forth on both sides of $15 in the September contract.  Resistance in Friday morning’s trade has been at the 100-day moving average (green line) at $15.07.  In our opinion, a close below $15 would be negative from a technical perspective and may point to the market returning to Thursday’s lows at $14.80 and/or the 20-day moving average at $14.77.  For now, the September contract likes the $15 to $15.20 range between the 50% and 62% retracement levels we discussed last week.  Consider this trading range in making some marketing decisions.

CME Rough Rice, Sept. 2024 daily

In the cash market, the new crop rice basis remained steady this week.  As of Thursday’s market close, fall delivery (Aug.-Oct.) bids at mills averaged $6.53/bu around eastern Arkansas and bids at dryers ranged from $6.39 to $6.46 per bushel.

Although this may have more implication for corn and soybeans, we are watching the Mississippi River.  The current forecast has the Memphis gauge falling below 2 feet by August 16^th.

Mississippi River at Memphis

Low river levels have been a common occurrence at harvest the last few years.  A weakening basis can be expected if we start to see draft restrictions on barge traffic.  Forecasts for river flow are subject to change, but this certainly bears watching.  It may be a good time to visit with your local elevator about basis contracts and removing that aspect of market risk.

Crop Progress:

Monday’s Crop Progress for the week ending July 28^th, had Texas’ rice harvest at 6 percent, up 3 points from the previous week, but down 1 point from the 5-year average.  Louisiana was 12 percent harvested vs. 14 percent last year and the 5-year average of 12 percent.

For much of Arkansas, the outlook for the upcoming week has limited rain chances.  The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disturbance in the Caribbean located on the eastern tip of Cuba.  It is expected to move up the western coast of Florida over the weekend.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2024 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2023 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.