Arkansas Rice Update 8-19-22

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - August 19, 2022

Arkansas Rice Update 2022-21

August 19, 2022

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, Nick Bateman, and Ben Thrash

“Big wheel keep on turnin’, Proud Mary keep on burnin’.”

Fine August Weather

Jarrod Hardke

A welcome soaking rain this week brought much needed relief to many rice and soybean acres.  Those just trying to get started with harvest had to pause, but only for a day.  Overall, the rain was of large value on saving some pumping costs across a lot of acres on an already expensive year.

Precipitation expectations for this weekend beginning Sunday were pretty high when this week began but are now fading somewhat.  Southeast AR still has the greatest chance of large rainfall amounts, with central and northeast areas potentially only receiving small amounts.  Only time will tell where the bulk of the rain sets up, but it looks like our friends on the Gulf still in the middle of harvest may get problematic rain totals.

Disease pressure has remained low, but the lower temperatures combined with some rain and heavier dews have increased some activity.  In particular, sheath blight activity has increased.  In many situations it’s reaching the upper canopy very late in heading rice nearing maturity – well beyond the point at which it can hurt yield.  However, if we get into harvest delays it could lead to some increased lodging.

Harvest progress is extremely preliminary at this stage.  But it’s nice to be able to say that yield and milling reports are good on the limited number of fields cut to this point.  The exact temperature conditions rice went through at various stages are extremely variable so there are a lot of unknowns about how yield and milling will play out, but right now the crop looks strong.  The combine will tell.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Late Season Rice Stink Bug Management

Nick Bateman and Ben Thrash

Rice stink bug (RSB) numbers have increased quite a bit over the past few weeks.  The calls we are receiving mainly revolve around the youngest rice just beginning to head.  In the trials we sprayed and sampled this week, we were averaging around 25 RSB per 10 sweeps.  This is double of what we were catching a month ago.  On a positive note, Endigo ZC and Tenchu both are providing excellent control of these populations.  Lambda and Mustang Maxx are both pretty poor, at only about 45-50% control.  At this point in the season, I would only use a pyrethroid if 50% control and essentially no residual is good enough.  As we keep draining and harvesting rice, the latest or greenest rice is going to become even more attractive to RSB.  Using a product like Endigo or Tenchu will provide upwards of 10 days of control of rice stink bugs, and in many cases, we have seen longer residual than that.

The last thing we want to mention is when can termination of RSB applications begin.  We have done quite a bit of work on this and have determined that when we hit 60% straw-colored kernels on a panicle, we can terminate RSB applications (Fig. 2).  We do want to be pretty clean going into 60% straw coloration, because at high populations of RSB, some damage can occur after 60% straw-colored kernels.  The only time we will not recommend terminating at 60% is if we have several days of rain in the forecast.  This can soften kernels and make it easier for RSB to damage kernels that would otherwise be past the point of receiving damage from rice stink bugs.  Good luck finishing out this crop, and feel free to call us with any questions.

Fig. 2.  Panicles in the center picture are 60% hard dough or beyond.

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

At the very end of what was a bearish week, Chicago rice futures turned sharply higher on Friday.  Ahead of the close, the September contract was trading 58 cents higher at one point and on track to erase all of this week’s losses.  Harvest progress is now a key focal point for the rice market.  The current weather models indicate significant rainfall totals next week across Texas and Louisiana as well as the south Delta.  A close above the key 50 and 100-day moving averages, as well as $17, would be significant in terms of building upside momentum.  The next resistance point would be at $17.20.

Fig. 3.  CME September 2022 Rough Rice Futures.

In Monday’s Crop Progress, USDA estimated the U.S. rice harvest at 11% complete for the week ending August 14^th.  The only states making significant headway were in the Deep South as Louisiana and Texas had reached the halfway mark.  Harvest was just getting underway in Arkansas.

Table 1.  Rice Harvested (%).

As alluded to in the introduction, the technical aspects of the September contract were very negative for much of this week.  Tuesday’s close was below trendline support at $17.  Wednesday’s close was below the 50 and 100-day moving averages.  Trading was lower again Thursday on weak export sales data and the U.S. dollar posting its largest daily gain since early July.  The U.S. dollar has strengthened back to 108 and put significant pressure on most ag commodities.

There are a number of bearish factors at play as the major grains have all struggled lately.  For one, Black Sea shipments are picking up.  Ukraine has now exported over 600,000 tons of grain since the start of the month.  With decent U.S. crop prospects, traders are no longer reluctant to get short a food grain.  It appeared this week that rice had to back off too and search for demand.

The findings in Thursday’s Export Sales were very poor and added to the negative market tone.  Total long-grain sales last week were a net 2,205 tons, with the majority (61%) sold to Canada.  The bright spot of the week was the announcement of a 44,000-ton sale of U.S. long-grain to Iraq.  This sale completed Iraq’s agreement to buy 200,000 tons from the U.S. during 2021-22.

In the cash market, rice basis for fall delivery was steady this week.  At mills around eastern Arkansas, basis is 11 to 14 cents per bushel under September ‘22 futures.  Basis at driers ranges from 18 to 25 cents per bushel under September futures.

On Monday (8/22), USDA-FSA is expected to release its August report of certified acres at 2:00 p.m. central.  The report can be found at this link:  FSA Crop Acreage Data

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.