Arkansas Rice Update 8-12-22

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - August 12, 2022

Arkansas Rice Update 2022-20

August 12, 2022

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, and Yeshi Wamishe

“There’s a place up ahead and I’m going, just as fast as my feet can fly.”

Official Harvest Bell

Jarrod Hardke

The first rice of 2022 has been delivered this week.  Not enough to give us any direction but a sign that we’re on our way.  The earliest planted rice in the state is getting below 20% and those acres should get kicked off this coming week, weather permitting.

Most rice and beans still need more irrigation ahead, so some more rain can still do a great deal of good.  These irrigation bills have been rough this year, so any help as we try to start looking toward the finish line will be welcome.

We’ll see a peek at some warmer temps this weekend before giving way to those rain chances and some very moderate temps with nights even into the 60s.  The weather should give us a smoother irrigation ride, but it’s troubling from a disease standpoint.  Later rice could see some issues with disease development, and even some rice that is past yield loss could develop lodging prior to harvest.  Further down, there’s a link to an article on late diseases.

Overall things are fairly quiet beyond the random problem fields that we chase this time of year.  We expected to have the FSA Acreage report to comment on today, but so far it hasn’t been posted.  Hopefully we’ll have that to dig into for next week.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Rice Diseases Are Not Forgiving to Rice

Yeshi Wamishe

https://arkansascrops.uada.edu/posts/disease/rice-disease-not-forgiving.aspx

Harvest Aid Tips

Jarrod Hardke

Using a harvest (sodium chlorate; salt) can be a useful tool at harvest.  Much like a hammer, it’s good when used correctly, and hurts when you don’t.

DO complete rice harvest in 5 days or less after application of sodium chlorate.  Waiting longer can allow heavy dews and/or rain events to cause milling issues.  If the panicle itself becomes too dry we can see an increase in shattered grain.

DO NOT use sodium chlorate on fields with uneven maturity.

DO NOT salt varieties until grain moisture is below 25% (e.g. Diamond, CLL16).

DO NOT salt hybrids until grain moisture is below 23% (e.g. XP753, RT 7521 FP).

DO NOT salt rice after grain moisture falls below 18%.  For long grains, there is not always a clear penalty below 18% but for medium grains it can be very harmful.  If attempting to salt a long grain at or below 18%, harvest should begin the following day.

DO consider using a lower rate of sodium chlorate if salting rice at lower moistures.  We have not observed a major difference between 3-5 lb rates of sodium chlorate, but the risk associated with using higher rates worsens as grain moisture gets low.

DO NOT salt rice solely on the basis of rapidly lowering grain moisture and expect a major moisture drop.  In research trials, salted plots have typically been only 2% lower grain moisture than the untreated check when harvested the same day.  This was true whether harvested 3 or 7 days after application.

Fig. 2.  Research plots receiving sodium chlorate (right) versus untreated check.

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

USDA released its’ August supply and demand estimates on Friday.  The U.S. new crop long-grain balance sheet included increased supply, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks.  Total Supply was increased on higher beginning stocks and production.  The increase in beginning stocks was the result of a .5 million cwt. increase in old crop (21/22) ending stocks.  Old crop imports were reduced by .5 to 31 million and exports were reduced 1 million to 62 million.  The net result of these adjustments was a .5 increase in 21/22 ending stocks to 25.4 million.

The initial survey-based production forecast for the 2022/23 crop year increased long-grain production from the previous forecast by 1.3 million cwt to 140.3 million, all on higher yields.  The U.S. average long-grain yield is forecast at 7,471 pounds per acre, up 69 pounds from the prior forecast.  Long-grain production is down 3 percent from last year and is the lowest since 2019.  Arkansas’ state average rice yield for 2022 was projected at 7,550 pounds, down from 7,630 pounds last year.

Table 1.  U.S. Long-Grain Rice, Supply and Demand.

Source:  USDA, August 2022.

Domestic use and Exports for 2022/23 were unchanged at 115 and 60 million, respectively.  Projected ending stocks were increased to 23.7 million cwt, up 1.8 million from last month but still 6.7 percent lower than last year.  The 2022/23 season-average farm price was increased $0.50 per cwt to a record $16.00 ($7.20/bu.), compared to last year’s $13.70 per cwt.

Of note, the 21/22 season-average farm price was unchanged this month at $13.70 or $6.17 per bushel.  This would result in a Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payment of 13 cents per bushel.  USDA will announce the final 21/22 season average price in October.

In the 2022/23 global outlook, India’s production was lowered 2.0 million tons to 128.5 million as dry weather in the northeast reduced planted area.  World production for 22/23 is forecast to be slightly below the previous year’s record high.  World use is forecast at a record, up slightly this month to 518.7 million tons.  Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 4.2 million tons to 178.5 million, mostly due to smaller stocks in India.

September ’22 rice futures traded 7 cents lower following Friday’s USDA report.  Price support was found at $17 and the 20-day moving average (green line).  Since early July, the September contract has remained in an uptrending channel, establishing higher highs and higher lows.  Trendline support currently sits at $17.  A close below this trendline could be a bearish signal.

Fig. 3.  CME September 2022 Rough Rice Futures, Daily Chart. 

Tropical activity has been near non-existent to this point.  Temperature forecasts for the upcoming week are below normal for August.  With some harvest set to get underway in the state, new crop futures could continue to trade in the narrow ranges seen this past week.  Worth mentioning, new crop rice basis around eastern Arkansas has strengthened some.  Basis for August to October delivery at mills is currently 11 cents per bushel under futures.  Basis at driers for August to October delivery ranges from 18 to 25 cents per bushel under futures.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.