Arkansas Rice Update 7-8-22

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - July 8, 2022

Arkansas Rice Update 2022-16

July 8, 2022

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, Trent Roberts, and Yeshi Wamishe

“Weatherman stands there waving his arms, there’s no more bales of hay, down in the barn, corn crop’s dead on my old man’s farm, he says we’re one day closer to rain.”

Feeling the Burn

Jarrod Hardke

Well it appears the time for the 4^th of July rain is passing without event.  It looks as though we’re in for real problems for the remainder of the summer.

Without any relief in the next couple of weeks, some very tough choices will have to be made.  Water availability and how far we can stretch things is starting to reach a very problematic point.  Rice usually gets first priority, but it may turn to a “can we just keep it wet” situation as we try to divert water to corn and soybean to keep them alive and productive.  Ultimately something will have to give, or go without irrigation, if a rain doesn’t turn up soon.

If there’s any upside to the short-term extended forecast, it’s that it appears we will see a slight reduction in daytime highs and more importantly nighttime temps as rice moves into flowering and grain fill stages.  Highs above 100 are a point of serious concern for flowering rice.  Nighttime temps remaining at or above 75 are a serious issue for flowering and grain fill.  As long as we can continue to periodically drop below these levels and avoid prolonged stretches, rice can manage.  However, 5 or more consecutive nights of these conditions can really punish us.

You don’t even want to know what some of the long-term models are currently throwing out there.  I regret having looked.

I had sincere hopes that I would have something good to say this week, but I’ll have to continue waiting.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Boot Nitrogen in Hybrid Rice

Jarrod Hardke and Trent Roberts

Unlike for varieties, we do not recommend a true midseason nitrogen (N) application for hybrid rice.  We recommend a preflood N application dependent on soil texture (generally 120 lb N/acre on loam soils and 150 lb N/acre on clay soils) followed by a late boot application of 30 lb N/acre.

What is late boot timing?  Once the flag leaves on main stem tillers are fully emerged to where you can see the leaf collar, up until boot-split / first heads emerging.

Why the late boot and not a midseason application?  The preflood N rate for hybrids is sufficient to supply season-long N needs for hybrids.  Any potential shortfalls during the season can be resolved by the hybrids taking up additional native soil N to bridge the gap.  So a true midseason is not needed to drive overall yield potential.

The late boot N application to hybrids serve to reduce lodging potential, slightly improve yields, and slightly improve milling yields.  If you were to make this application earlier at a true midseason timing (i.e. ½-inch internode elongation), I would still expect similar benefits, but some negative consequences could occur such as increased plant height and increased rank (excessive) growth.  Stick with the late boot timing to get the positives while minimizing the negatives.  I continue to hear of folks pushing the application earlier into midseason, and I can only wonder if that’s a historical idea that “rice needs a midseason N app” but it isn’t based on any research data from the past 10-15 years of growing hybrids.

Table 1.  Net Return from late boot nitrogen applications to hybrid rice ($850/ton urea).

The late boot N recommendation is to be applied as urea.  There continue to be pushes for “piggy-backing” a liquid foliar N product with a fungicide at the late boot timing instead of applying N as urea.  The reasoning is always that it’s cheaper to add in a foliar N product with a trip you’re already making.  There is no evidence that a foliar N product can supply the needed amounts of N that urea application can.

After rice enters reproductive growth, it is capable of taking up urea N with high efficiency (90% uptake) when grown under a continuous flood.  Foliar N applications cannot supply these N rate levels.  A foliar N product containing 32% N can only deliver 3.2 lb N per gallon.  Even if applied at 3 gallons per acre and similar efficiency to urea, you’re only getting 8.6 lb N versus 27 lb N from urea.

Charts continue to be sent around suggesting that 1 lb N applied foliarly is equal to 5-10 lb N applied to soil.  This is false – a pound is a pound.

Additional issues are that the more you try to increase that foliar N rate, the greater likelihood of crop burn from the liquid N which can be detrimental late in the season especially if the flag leaf is severely burned.  Running that many gallons of liquid N also puts you in the neighborhood of the cost of urea that is giving you many more units of N.

Timing and Application for Smut Prevention

Jarrod Hardke and Yeshi Wamishe

Preventing kernel smut and false smut is a battle every year.  There continue to be discussions about “automatic” fungicide applications to prevent or suppress these diseases.  In many cases there is little justification for these applications.

Decision-Making Checklist for Fungicide Applications to Prevent Kernel and/or False Smut

• Field History of Kernel Smut or False Smut

• Susceptible Cultivar

• Late Planting Date (mid-May and later; varies by season conditions)

• Excessive Nitrogen Rate

The more factors you can “check”, the more beneficial a fungicide application may be.  Apply a minimum of 6 oz/acre of Tilt (or equivalent) for adequate suppression of smuts.  If Amistar Top is used, higher rates are preferred at least 12-14 oz/acre rate.

When making these fungicide applications, it is preferred that higher water volumes (5+ gal/acre) are used.  Coverage is everything for making these fungicides work.

Timing during the day can also impact these applications.  Very early morning applications where dew is heavy may actually negatively impact applications as the dew prevents direct leaf contact of the spray and some may “roll off”.  Mid-morning as dew is drying off, or late evening may be best.  Mid-day applications have the risk of not all droplets falling to the target as heat and humidity are high above the crop canopy.

For more on kernel and false smut management in rice:  https://arkansascrops.uada.edu/posts/disease/kernel-false-smut-management-rice.aspx

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

The rice market took a sharp turn lower following the June 30 USDA reports, as did soybeans.  By the way, November soybeans traded to $15.07 ¾ on June 30^th (report day) and to $13.04 this past Tuesday.  So, basically a $2 swing in just three (3) trading sessions.

Since Wednesday, both rice and soybeans have turned higher.  It’s never easy to pin down the exact drivers of the futures market.  For certain, the September rice contract had moved well into “oversold” territory.  The bottom graph (black line) of the futures chart includes the 14-day Relative Strength Index, which dipped into the mid-30s earlier this week.

Fig. 2.  CME September ’22 Rough Rice Futures, Daily Chart.

At the time of this writing (Friday) CBOT September rice is up 1 ½ cents at $16.40.  A close this week above $16.40 would be encouraging.  Looking at the daily chart for the September contract, note the red 100-day moving average, which currently sits at $16.39.  That is currently a key resistance point.  Further up, the 20-day moving average (green line) at $16.57 would be the next level of resistance.

With trading turning higher mid-week, we can surmise the heat and dryness in the Midsouth has put some worry in trader’s minds.  Parts of northeast Arkansas have now gone one month without rainfall, not to mention the triple digit temperatures that have accompanied the drought.  This is a concern as NASS indicated in this week’s Crop Progress that some of the Midsouth rice crop had reached heading.  As of July 3^rd, Arkansas was at 2% heading, Mississippi at 18% and Louisiana and Texas both at 50 percent.

Also, midweek there was talk about Iraq.  Although it may be nothing, there was some speculation that Iraq was in the market for rice.  Recall under the current memorandum of understanding, Iraq’s buying authority agreed in principle to buy 200,000 mt of US rice annually.  Thus far in the 21/22 marketing year, only 120,000 mt has been purchased.

The significant price difference between U.S. and Thai rice has been the key reason U.S. sales to Iraq have stalled.  Currently, U.S. #2, 4% broken white rice, bagged FOB Lake Charles, is at a $276/mt premium to Thai 100% Grade B white rice.  Plus, Thailand has a freight price / shipping time advantage.  From January to May, Thailand has shipped around 415,000 mt of rice to Iraq, with 150,000 mt more scheduled to be shipped in the coming weeks.

USDA released updated export sales data Friday morning.  The slow demand for long-grain continues to be a major concern.  However, last week’s sales of milled and rough rice were the best seen in the last three weeks.  Decent volumes of rough rice were sold to Honduras (5,000 mt) and Nicaragua (6,000 mt).  Haiti was in for 15,142 mt of milled rice.  With total long-grain sales still trailing last year by 10%, the trade is wondering if we may see another cut to the old crop exports in next week's July 12^th WASDE.

Regarding the July WASDE, the June Acreage data may be shifting the rice market’s mindset to a tighter supply scenario.  With 38,000 fewer acres, it’s possible 2022 long-grain production could be trimmed down to 138.2 million cwt., compared to 140.9 million in the June forecast.  Lower 2022 production is very likely in next week’s USDA estimates.  Uncertainty remains in old crop exports.

Lastly, it’s worth mentioning the price pullback in diesel futures.  The most recent peak in futures occurred in mid-June at $4.64/gallon.  Currently, the August contract trades about $1/gallon below the June 17 highs.  Like many commodities, diesel has retreated well into oversold territory.  That may now be generating some technical buying.  Also, from a fundamental perspective, U.S. distillate fuel inventories are over 27 million barrels below last year and over 33 million barrels below the 5-year average.  The $3.35 to $3.40 area is near term price support for diesel futures.  Watch for a breakout above resistance at $3.70 to $3.75.

Fig. 3.  NYMEX Diesel Futures, Nearby Contract, Daily Chart.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2022 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2021 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields on the DD50 website.  

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.