Arkansas Rice Update 7-26-24

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - July 26, 2024

Arkansas Rice Update 2024-16

July 26, 2024

Jarrod Hardke, Bob Scott, and Scott Stiles

“Changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes, nothing remains quite the same.”

Preparing for Flight

While lower temperatures and rainy overcast conditions were the name of the game this week, rainfall totals have been variable.  Most of the Delta ranged from 0.25 to 2 inches for the last 7 days, but the majority was less than 1 inch of accumulation.

While these conditions appear to have resulted in a slowdown, progress will pick right back up as we head into next week with warmer temperatures and decreasing rainfall chances.  Combines will be hitting the field in the coming week it appears.  Last year the first harvest report was Aug. 4, which we should beat this go around and have a lot of company early ran than the typical creeping start.  For the majority of acres it will be the second week of August for fields hitting 20% grain moisture or lower.  Arguably 90% of acres will be in the neighborhood of harvest moisture before we get to September.  Wow.

Reports on rice stink bug numbers continue to be low and dropping – we’ll take that.  Still some scattered lingering reports of armyworms so continue to watch out for those.

Will someone sneak out there this week and grab some July harvested rice?  We’ll see, but there’s rice that should be ready if conditions dry things out enough.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Field Day Reminders:

Aug. 1 – Rice Field Day – Rice Research & Extension Center, Stuttgart, AR – tours begin 7:30 a.m.

Aug. 8 – Rice Field Day – Northeast Rice Research & Extension Center, Harrisburg, AR – tours begin 7:30 a.m.

Drain Timing

Jarrod Hardke

Fields are already being drained around the state with plenty more getting ready to follow as we exit this cooler rainy period.  Now is a good time to point out that with temperatures looking to increase and with decreasing rain chances, drain like it’s never going to rain again.  In 2022 fields that were drained on the early side appeared to suffer some yield and standability issues.

With some fields already being drained over a week ago, it’s likely we’ll see harvest begin in 7-10 days – unless someone sneaks in there by July 31 to say they did it.

The very general rule for draining is 25 days after 50% heading for long-grains and 30 days after 50% heading for medium-grains.  The DD50 Rice Management Program builds these numbers into its drain timing recommendation.  However, as temperature, rainfall, humidity, and sunlight can impact how quickly grains actually mature, it’s important to do more than just count days and drain.

Look at the number of days a general target to shoot for, but look at the general maturity of the crop from visual standpoint to confirm.  Fig. 2 is a general visual aid for determining relative grain maturity for drain decisions:

• Left, nearly all kernels are straw-colored – safe to drain regardless of soil type.

• Center, 2/3 of kernels are straw-colored – safe to drain on a silt loam soil.

• Right, 1/3 of kernels are straw-colored – safe to drain on a clay soil.

Again – act like it’s never going to rain again when you drain fields.  If rice couldn’t make it to maturity without some rain, then wait longer.  Use caution to protect yield and milling.

Also note that with so much planted at once – a lot will of course be ready to harvest at once.  So, if we stage out draining a little at a time dragging our feet, maybe we can get the plants to last a little longer keeping moisture from bottoming out and plants standing until the end.

Fig. 2.  Rice panicles at different maturity levels described by kernel percent straw color:  (L) 100%, (C) 67%, and (R) 33%.

Bobbing and Weeding

Bob Scott

• Not too late in some fields to consider a levee treatment for pigweed control – watch herbicide cutoff timings! This will significantly help reduce pigweed populations in 2025.  Loyant is a good option to 2,4-D where it can be used.  See the levee weed control section in the MP44.

Fig. 3.  Pigweeds on rice levees.

• Glufosinate (Liberty) drift on rice in the late boot stage (Fig. 4). Note the localized damage and you can see the movement of the herbicide from where the initial droplet made contact only goes a few millimeters.  This type of injury will likely not impact rice yield.

Fig. 4.  Glufosinate drift on rice.

• Glyphosate (Roundup) impact on seed heads visible late boot (Fig. 5). This drift event happened around 3 weeks ago and very little glyphosate symptoms are visible on the vegetation.  These photos are from the same field impacted area and “untreated” area.

Fig. 5.  Glyphosate drift on rice.

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

Rice futures are heading into the Friday close looking to gain about $1/cwt for the week.  The September contract has put together an impressive rally and pushed through some key technical roadblocks.  After some initial trouble, the September contract was able to move beyond some moving average resistance like the 20-day (red) and 100-day (blue) lines shown in the chart (Fig. 6).

Note in the chart the June high at $15.83 and last Friday’s low at $14.15.  When markets retrace or correct, oftentimes you see rallies stall at a 50% or 62% retracement level.  The September contract did temporarily stall and find resistance Wednesday and Thursday at the 50% retracement and coincidentally the 100-day moving average line.  At the time of this writing Friday morning, trading has pushed beyond $15.00 now bumps against the 62% retracement at $15.19 and the 50-day moving average (green) at $15.23.  A very impressive move this week from a technical standpoint.  We mention all this as a reminder that the market is at a critical area of chart resistance in the $15.19 to $15.23 range.  We need to see the market close above this level for a few sessions to confirm a possible run back to the June highs.

Fig. 6.  CBOT Rough Rice, September 2024, daily chart.

In the cash market, the new crop basis remained firm this week and fall delivery bids are back to levels last seen July 2^nd.  As of Thursday’s market close, fall delivery (Aug.-Oct.) rice bids at mills averaged $6.50/bu around eastern Arkansas and bids at dryers ranged from $6.36 to $6.43 per bushel.

U.S. Crop Condition Ratings

From USDA’s perspective, the 2024 rice crop looks to have a lot of potential.  Academics often debate if there is a correlation among crop ratings and final yields.  So, take the following sentences with a word of caution.

For the week ending July 21^st, the U.S. rice crop was rated 83% good/excellent.  For this point in the growing season, that is the highest rating since 1987.  Up to that point in time, the U.S. average yield in 1987 would be the second highest on record.

Fig. 7.  Rice condition rating, 2024.

Arkansas’ rice crop is rated very high as well at 80% good/excellent.  That is the state’s highest rating for the week since 1996 – a year that saw a new record state average yield of 6,150 pounds (almost 137 bu./ac).  The 1996 yield would surpass the previous record by a sizeable 450 pounds or 10 bushels per acre.  The new record in 1996 held for a while and stood until 2001.

Although nearly a week old now, Monday’s Crop Progress gave some insight into how advanced the crop is compared to previous years with 62 percent of the Arkansas crop headed vs. 33 percent last year and the 5-year average of 19 percent.  Mississippi is 67 percent headed vs. the 5-year average of 57 percent.

Harvest is underway in the Deep South.  Louisiana reported 8 percent harvested and Texas was 3 percent harvested as of last Sunday.  Harvest in both states is a few points ahead of last year and the 5-year average.

At the present time, there is no tropical disturbance in the Atlantic 7-day outlook.  For the continental U.S., the outlook includes some heat over the next 10 days.  Arkansas is expected to see temperatures push into the mid-90s around the middle of next week.

Fig. 8.  NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2024 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2023 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.