Arkansas Rice Update 7-18-25

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - July 18, 2025

Arkansas Rice Update 2025-18

July 18, 2025

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, & Camila Nicolli

“Call out the instigator, because there’s something in the air.”

Cooking with Gas

The temps start coming and they don’t stop coming.  With no rainfall help expected over the next 7 days (Fig. 1) and Delta temperatures hovering in the mid to upper 90s in the day and mid to upper 70s at night (Fig. 2), things are getting Western.

It’s that time of year where these updates are a little shorter as our topics begin to narrow.  With a lot of rice in the boot stages and beginning to head out, these temperatures have my full attention as I’m sure they do yours.  The best advice for this week is to try all we can to keep the rice cool and comfortable.  This means keeping water moving.  In flooded rice fields try to keep the water on the move so that it doesn’t become stagnant and heat up even more (in 2016 in a period like this you could almost burn your hand if you put it in stagnant floodwater).  For row rice, tighten up those irrigation intervals a little – not so much for water needs but for keeping the plants cool.

Stink bug numbers are moderate to low (keep scouting!) – listen to the podcast linked below.  Sheath blight also is having some blow ups but many acres are getting to heading without a clear need to treat.  Making it to 50% heading with upper leaves clean means we’ve outrun yield loss.

Keep the water moving and stay hydrated this week!  There won’t be a Rice Update next week but we’ll be back at it on Aug. 1.

Read on below for more information on field days, temperatures, disease, and rice markets.

Listen to the Podcast:  Entomology Update 7-15-25: Rice Stink Bug, Cotton Pests, Bollworms in Soybeans (Nick Bateman and Ben Thrash)

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  Extended forecast for Harrisburg, AR.

Field Days

July 31 – Northeast Rice Research and Extension Center Rice and Row Crop Field Day

15327 Hwy. 1., Harrisburg – Registration starts at 7:30 a.m., tours at 8:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m.

Aug. 7 – Rice Research and Extension Center Rice Field Day

2900 Hwy. 130. E., Stuttgart – Registration starts at 7:00 a.m., tours at 7:30 a.m.

Aug. 14 – Pine Tree Research Station Field Day

7337 Hwy. 306 W., Colt – Details TBA

Ricing Around

Jarrod Hardke

High Temps

These temperatures appear more concerning right now when comparing them to past years.  Table 1 shows the number of nights each month for June, July, and August from 2010 to present along with the final state average yield.  Certainly 2010 and 2011 stand out for the hot nights and yield impacts.  2016 also had issues and had similar nighttime temperature occurrences to 2010 and 2011.  But years like 2021 and 2022 were slight oddities in that the nights started to add up a little, but the stretches of these were shorter and broken up by breaks in the temps.  So far in 2025 we’ve had the 2^nd most 74+ temps in June to only 2010, and we’re heavy on the July count with half the month remaining and a forecast of 10 more nights of 74+.  It’s important to note that it’s not just the number of hot nights, but the number of consecutive nights staying at these elevated temperatures matters too.  We all know planting dates matter too so hiding in this data are differences in planting progress and overall plant growth stages at the times these heat events occur.

Table 1.  Number of nights with overnight lows of 74 or greater for June, July, and August from 2010 to 2025, along with final state average yield.

* Number of nights through July 17, 2025.

Disease Update

Camilla Nicolli

Sheath Blight After Fungicide?  What to Watch For and When to Test for Resistance

This past week, I received a few samples from fields where growers had applied Quilt Xcel (active ingredient: azoxystrobin + propiconazole) but still observed sheath blight progressing in their rice crops.  While this may raise concerns about fungicide resistance, I want to clarify an important point: once symptoms of sheath blight appear on the plant, they do not disappear after fungicide application.  The goal of the fungicide is to stop the disease from progressing further.

After application, it’s crucial to monitor whether the symptoms continue moving upward to the upper leaves.  If this progression continues, we may be dealing with a potential case of fungicide resistance.  I emphasize may because favorable conditions can also lead to new infections, even after treatment.  Since fungicides are typically active for about two weeks, any new infections that occur after this period may affect unprotected tissue, as the fungicide is no longer providing effective coverage.

If you’re unsure, feel free to send us your samples – we can test them for fungicide resistance.  Please note that this process takes a couple of months, but we’re happy to assist and check for you.

Market Update

Scott Stiles

Enough Already!  At this writing Friday morning, September 2025 rice futures are making new contract lows.  As trading broke below the mid-May low at $12.53, technical sell stops were triggered.  The managed funds have been net short rice since early June 2024.  After unwinding their short position for 5 weeks from late May through June, renewed selling by the funds has been underway for the past 3 weeks.  The September contract now trades at the lowest level since January 2021.  For what it’s worth, September futures are deeply oversold from a technical standpoint and well overdue a corrective bounce.

Fig. 3.  CME September Rough Rice Futures, 5-year Weekly Continuation.

One would think the large reduction in long-grain acres from the March intentions would support new crop futures.  There are other, obviously more bearish fundamentals overriding the acreage story.  For one, new crop export sales are off to a very slow start and far behind last year.  As of July 10, new crop (25/26) long-grain rough rice sales total 25,625 tons compared to 197,005 tons last year.

We’ve discussed many times the situation with old crop (24/25) rough rice exports.  These continue to lag last year by 18 to 20 percent with three (3) reporting weeks remaining in the marketing year.  This may ultimately lead to a further reduction in USDA’s old crop export estimate, which could lead to another bump higher in new crop beginning stocks.  Futures markets are forward-looking and the industry’s best collection of information.  Right now, the futures market believes U.S. prices need to work lower to stimulate demand and compete in a much lower priced World market.  All major Asian rice exporters now have quotes below $400/ton for 5% broken white rice, while U.S. prices are about $650/ton.

Projected 2025 PLC Payments

This month USDA released updated projections for 2025 Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments to reflect the provisions of the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  As of July 11, USDA is projecting 2025 PLC payments for several program commodities, including rice.  Projected payment rates are shown in the far-right column in the table below.

The Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program will trigger payments whenever the marketing year average (MYA) price is below the PLC Effective Reference Price.  The payment rate equals the Effective Reference Price minus the higher of the MYA price or the national loan rate.

The PLC payments are made on 85% of a farm’s base acres.  The payment rate is multiplied by a farm’s specific PLC yield.  Any 2025 crop year PLC payments are subject to a $155,000 per entity limit: up from $125,000 per entity in 2024.

To estimate the projected PLC payment, multiply the average PLC yield for a farm by the projected payment rate.  For example, the projected 2025 PLC payment for long-grain rice is estimated at $207.94 per base acre (.85 x $1.76/bu. payment rate x 139 bushels per acre PLC yield).  PLC yields will vary from farm to farm.  Under the provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, existing PLC yields will remain in effect.  A farm’s PLC yields established under the 2018 Farm Bill (known as the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018), were equal to 90% of a farm’s average yields from 2013-2017.

Note, this payment projection could be reduced further due to budget sequestration.  USDA will review their season average farm price projection each month throughout the marketing year.  Any 2025 PLC payments for rice are not expected to be made until November 2026.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2025 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2024 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.