Arkansas Rice Update 4-4-25

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - April 4, 2025

Arkansas Rice Update 2025-03

April 4, 2025

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“Come sail away, come sail away with me.”

Say Uncle

In the words of Farmer Hoggett, “that’ll do, pig.”  So far the forecast has been mostly right with plenty of rain across most of the Delta.  Unfortunately, that also came with the severe thunderstorms and tornadoes – more devastating damage for some of our neighbors only a few weeks after our first bout of the year.

From tonight (4/4) until Sunday morning, the fun isn’t over.  Some of the additional forecast rain amounts get pretty deep.  The small break received today may provide the gap that was needed for some acres to escape worse outcomes for planted crops – seeing fields draining off today was a welcome sight.  But the next round of rains won’t have anywhere to drain to, so the fight isn’t over for well-draining ground and lower-lying areas are in trouble.

On Monday 3/31, planting progress reports had us at just 8% planted in the state.  I suspect it was more in the neighborhood of 20% and we’ll likely see some correction up toward that point in the upcoming report.  Planting progress surveys are tough these days now that we’ve taken to planting many different crops at once and some of that is row rice – so it’s not always obvious what all is planted on those beds until plants emerge.

On strictly the rice side of things, we do have rice already emerged in the state which is incredible.  The warm soil conditions in March really got some of the early planted fields moving.  The positive to this rain event is that we were in need of some moisture on worked fields, and now we’ll be sealed over and set to take off when this passes.

The extended forecast is favorable with warming back into the mid to upper 70s by mid-week and plenty of sun.  By the end of the week high areas will be off and flying, and we’ll see if we can get on a good April run.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  Drain it any which way you can.

New Podcast:

Weeds AR Wild S5, Ep3: Rice Planting Progress and Weed Control (Bob Scott, Tom Barber, Jarrod Hardke)

Thoughts on Prospective Plantings Report

Jarrod Hardke

All the way back in December it seemed possible that rice acres would flirt with staying near 2023 and 2024 levels (just north of 1.4 million acres).  If it happened it would be the first time since 2004-2006 that we had three consecutive years north of 1.4 million acres.  As it always does, much has changed since then.

The survey indicates strong rice acreage intentions for Arkansas with a slight reduction of 10,000 acres of long grain but a 23,000 acre increase in medium grain to offset it.  The reality is that given the seed supply situation and prices moving in various directions, achieving this many total rice acres will be tough.  Not impossible, but tough.  If suspect the final number will actually settle out close to 1.3 million total acres planted for the state.  As always, that’s dependent on weather windows in April and early May to get us there.

Table 1. U.S. Rice Planted Acreage, 2024 and March 2025 Prospective Plantings.

Source:  USDA NASS.

Table 2. U.S. Long-Grain Planted Acreage, 2024 and March 2025 Prospective Plantings.

Source:  USDA NASS.

Table 3. U.S. Medium-Grain Planted Acreage, 2024 and March 2025 Prospective Plantings.

Source:  USDA NASS.

Market Update

Scott Stiles

Tariff implications for U.S. fertilizer imports

The reciprocal tariff policies announced Wednesday (April 2) by the Trump administration are expected to increase fertilizer prices.  Almost every country that the U.S. buys fertilizer from will be hit with new import duties.

A baseline 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods from all countries imported into the U.S. excluding those compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).  Non-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods will continue to be charged at a 25% rate, although potash that is deemed to be non-compliant will pay a reduced rate of 10%.

Imports of goods from other countries will see the baseline 10% rate begin on April 5^th.  Roughly 60 countries were given more specific reciprocal tariff rates based on the rates those countries have in place on U.S. goods.

Phosphates

Non-North American countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Tunisia, Australia, and Trinidad and Tobago ship a large amount of phosphate fertilizer to the U.S.  Under the new tariff policy, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Australia will have a 10% duty on all imports sent to the U.S.; Israel a 17% duty; and Jordan a 20% duty.  A 28% tariff will be applied to imports from Tunisia.

Existing countervailing duties have largely blocked U.S. imports of phosphates from Russia and Morocco.  This allowed Saudi Arabia to grow its share of U.S. DAP/MAP imports to 45% in 2024.  Jordan, Egypt, and Tunisia, together accounted for 21% of U.S. DAP/MAP imports last year.

Australia has been a regular supplier of phosphates to the U.S., averaging 9% of imports over the past five years.

The base 10% tariff applied to Morocco will add to the countervailing duties already in place.  Customs data show that 10% of DAP/MAP imports came from Morocco last year.

Potash

Some products will be exempt from these latest tariffs, including certain critical minerals.  Goods that will be exempt include a number of potassium-based fertilizer products.  Potash is included on the list of U.S. critical minerals.  The U.S. imports the vast majority of its potash, with 98% coming from other countries, and 85% of that from Canada.

Most fertilizer purchasing for spring 2025 application has already taken place.  But, with the new tariffs beginning April 5^th, it could be a scramble to get fertilizer booked and lined up for mid-season applications ahead of higher prices.

Nitrogen

Import tariffs are expected to have less of an impact on nitrogen fertilizers.  The U.S. is the world’s fourth-largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers.  However, the U.S. does import some nitrogen from Trinidad and Tobago and Canada.  Imports have accounted for 6 to 13% of total nitrogen consumption in the U.S. since 2020.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.