Arkansas Rice Update 3-28-25

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - March 28, 2025

Arkansas Rice Update 2025-02

March 28, 2025

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, Nick Bateman, & Ben Thrash

“Funny how fallin’ feels like flyin’ for a little while.”

A Nervous Start

Arkansas is now on the board for official planting progress at 2% as of Monday, March 24.  There has been additional moderate progress this week.  Dry conditions throughout much of the state, combined with the seed situation, have limited the early planting excitement for rice.  We may see the state around 10% planted in the upcoming report on 3/31.  Areas of the state vary considerably with some pockets hammering down and others slow playing things.

Rains forecast for this weekend continue to increase in rainfall amounts followed by considerable increases in amounts and days of rain in the upcoming week.  If this all holds true we may be looking at a 10 day gap in any real planting progress.  The 7-day outlook (Fig. 1) is rough for eastern Arkansas, but any eastward shift in the rainfall pattern would open things back up quickly.

Many acres are worked and fully ready to go, but again powder dry.  A settling rainfall event would be a welcome one, though it’s starting to look like we’ll get more than we bargained for.  The upside will be that the ground should drain and dry fairly quickly since it’s well prepared, leading to the potential for a major jump in planting progress as soon as the rains end.

There have already been a number of “oops” moments for some rice fields that we really don’t need.  Work through your plan to keep the right rice in the right fields, and the right herbicides in the right fields.  Mistakes are going to happen, but so far these have been preventable.

See below for comments on low germination rates, the use of insecticide seed treatments, and an update on markets.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

More on Dealing with Low Germination Rates

Jarrod Hardke

A few short comments were made last week about dealing with low germination rates for rice seed.  Let’s dive into that in a little more detail to tease out the specifics a little better.  Typically, even seed with lower germination rates has good vigor, so most of the time we’re dealing with an issue of math to get the seeding rate correct.

Table 1 shows rough estimates for seeding rate adjustments when dealing with lower seed germination rates.  Instead of the ballpark 10% and 20% increases mentioned last week the math says it’s more of a 12% and 30% increase at 70% and 60% germination, respectively.  BUT increases that extreme may not be needed.

The germination rate listed on the bag is the minimum standard that the seed will meet, it is not the exact germination rate.  Often for bags listed as 80% germ, the real rate is 85-90% germination.  If a bag is listed as 70% germ, then it is at least that and likely higher but just doesn’t consistently stay above 80% so it can’t be labeled that way.  The same is true for 60% germ labeled seed, it’s at least that rate but likely higher.

So, when adjusting seeding rates remember you may not need to adjust all the way to the germination rate listed on the bag.

Example: If you normally plant 22 lb/acre of a 19,000 seed/lb product at 80% germination, to achieve the same stand for that product at 70% germ we need to plant 25 lb/acre and at 60% germ we need to plant 29 lb/acre.

**Calculations based on 19,000 seed/lb, adjust based on your seed count.**

Table 1.  Adjusted seeding rates for lower germination rice seed to achieve similar plant stands to 80% germination rate seed (Table calculations use 19,000 seed/lb).

Benefits of Insecticide Seed Treatments in Rice

Nick Bateman & Ben Thrash

There have been numerous calls over the past week or so around reduced rates of insecticide seed treatments (ISTs) or cutting them out altogether.  With current prices everyone is looking for areas to save money, but seed treatments shouldn’t be one of them.  Insecticide seed treatments, particularly neonicotinoid seed treatments (CruiserMaxx and NipsIt INSIDE) not only provide insect protection but many other benefits such as seedling vigor and reduction of plant injury from herbicide drift.

CruiserMaxx and NipsIt are the only consistent control option we have for grape colaspis (GC).  It seems over the past several years we have forgotten how damaging GC (Fig. 2) can be due to the number of acres that are treated with one of these two neonics.  If you are in a soybean/rice rotation, GC is always a major threat.  Folks have asked about increasing seeding rate to overcome GC damage, but with the current cost of seed and lack of seed supply this isn’t an effective or economical option.

Fig. 2.  Grape colaspis damage in 2024 to rice with no insecticide seed treatment.

Let’s not forget about rice water weevil (RWW) either.  This is the number one pest of flooded rice we deal with.  While GC is typically relegated to lighter soil textures, RWW are not.  Neonics can be highly effective on RWW, however it is dependent on how many days are between planting and flood.  The diamide seed treatments Dermacor and Fortenza have a much longer residual and perform very well on RWW.

Over the past 7 years we have talked a lot about combinations of ISTs and the benefits of combining different seed treatments for control of GC and RWW.  We have been comparing combinations of a neonicotinoid seed treatment with a diamide seed treatment.  With combinations of one of the neonics and one of the diamide seed treatments we consistently see an increase in control of RWW, better yields, and increased net returns compared to a neonic or diamide alone (Table 1).  We have seen some increased control when combining CruiserMaxx and NipsIt, but it is less consistent than combinations including a diamide seed treatment.

Do I need this combination on every acre?  The short answer is no, but it’s dependent on multiple factors.  Planting date and soil texture are the two biggest factors in making this decision.

• Planting Date

  • For rice planted in April that is more likely to sit in the ground longer and take longer to get to flood, the addition of one of the diamide seed treatments will help tremendously with rice water weevil control. In this planting window there is a much higher likelihood of the neonic seed treatments running out of gas before the flood is applied, which will lead to a reduced control for rice water weevil.  For rice planted in May, a neonic seed treatment will typically suffice.  At this point rice is usually coming out of the ground quickly and we managed to get to flood within the 28-35 day window that the neonics last.

• Soil Texture

  • Soil texture will dictate whether or not GC will be a concern. Grape colaspis do not occur in heavy clay soil, which is typical rice ground in large portions of Northeast and Southeast Arkansas.  In these areas a diamide seed treatment for April plantings, or neonic seed treatment for May plantings should suffice.  Grape colaspis is very likely to be found in our finer, loamier soils throughout the Grand Prairie and White River regions, so regardless of planting date we have to have one of the neonic seed treatments on our seed to protect it.

The addition of a diamide seed treatment provides other benefits than just RWW control.  This chemistry is excellent on caterpillar pests.  We have observed control of fall armyworm 80 days after planting with both diamides.  This could have been highly beneficial for a lot of folks last year.  We have also observed decreased feeding from rice billbug and increased yields in row rice when combinations of insecticide seed treatments are used.  We are seeing an uptick in rice billbug pressure as we continue to maintain a large row rice footprint in the state.  We would suggest if you are planting row rice to add a diamide to your seed.

The bottom line is we need seed treatments in rice to stay profitable, and while it may cost more money, combinations of ISTs will pay for themselves in early planted rice.  We can still see benefits in later planted rice from the combinations, but in most cases they are not needed.  Production prices are extremely high right now, so we need to be mindful of how we spend our money and be sure to put these combinations of ISTs where they belong.  At a minimum this year a neonic seed treatment needs to be used.  If we want to protect every bushel possible from soil insects a combination of both a neonic and diamide is recommended.

Table 2.  Rice water weevil (RWW) control, yield benefits, and net returns with insecticide seed treatments in rice, 2018-2024.

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Market Update

Scott Stiles

Monday, March 31^st will be a huge USDA report day that includes the Prospective Plantings, quarterly Grain Stocks, Rice Stocks, and Agricultural Prices.  The star of the show will be the Prospective Plantings.  It provides the year’s first survey-based estimates of U.S. farmers’ planting intentions.  The survey results also play a crucial role in shaping market expectations for the upcoming year.  The March 31 acreage findings will be used in USDA’s first new crop production estimates released in May.

For the Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, NASS began the survey process on February 18, 2025.  The deadline for responses was March 18, 2025.  Approximately 1800 farmers in Arkansas received a NASS survey.  Growers were asked about the crops they intend to plant, expected acreage as well as the type and amount of grain they had in on-farm storage.

Throughout the survey period for the Prospective Plantings, there was a generally bearish market tone across all the major row crop commodities.  From February 18 through March 18, September 2025 rice futures had an average daily settlement price of $13.79/cwt.  This is about 5% below last year’s average settlement of $14.48 during the survey.  Does this imply lower rice acres in 2025?

Fig. 3.  September 2024 and 2025 Rice Futures, Feb. 18-Mar. 18.

The table below includes the results of a Bloomberg survey of 32 analysts about U.S. 2025 planting intentions.  The survey was conducted from March 21-25.  The survey results provided a wide range of opinions for U.S. rice acres.  Some indicated a sharp decline in acres down to 2.2 million.  Some indicated an increase in acres up to 3.1 million.  The average guess of 2.7 million implies acres could be down approximately 200,000 (-7%) from last year.

Table 3.  Bloomberg Survey:  U.S. 2025 Planted Acres (million acres).

For many years, one of the main objectives of the NASS acreage survey was to provide producers with information to re-evaluate their plans.  That may be true for growers in the Midwest.  For the Midsouth, corn, soybean, and rice planting is well underway in March this year.  The table below shows rice planting progress as of March 23.

Table 4.  U.S. Rice % Planted (week ending March 23).

It goes without saying, market action Monday (Mar. 31) could be interesting.  The Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks, and Rice Stocks will all be dumped out at 11:00 a.m. Central time.  Below is a link to NASS’ homepage.  You can find all of Monday’s reports available there.

https://www.nass.usda.gov/

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.