Arkansas Rice Update 3-25-22

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - March 25, 2022

Arkansas Rice Update 2022-01

March 25, 2022

Jarrod Hardke, Scott Stiles, and Tommy Butts

“I’d bet it all on a good run of bad luck.”

Rice Acreage – The Debate Continues

Jarrod Hardke

There’s nothing good to say about the rice acreage outlook as of late.  Continued changes in the market related to commodity price competition and input prices still have things in turmoil.  At this point in time, it seems easy to say that (my) earlier predictions of ~1.3 million rice acres in Arkansas are likely a pipe dream now.

Given the strength of soybean and cotton prices, and more recently improvements in corn prices, rice has a difficult road.  Rice prices have improved to return to more competitive levels (similar to January and early February compared to other crops), but now fertilizer and fuel input price increases appear to be washing those gains away.

At this moment, a top end rice acreage expectation for Arkansas may be 1.2 million acres (long and medium grain combined).  This would likely be in the neighborhood of 1.1 million acres of long-grain and 100,000 acres of medium-grain.  If I had to argue with that split, I would send the medium-grain higher and long-grain lower.

Over the past 10 years, in even numbered years, we have grown rice acres of 1.28M (2012), 1.48M (2014), 1.52M (2016), 1.42M (2018), and 1.44M (2020).  What seems likely now is the first time we will have consecutive years below 1.28M acres since 2011-2013.  Note that from 1997-2010 we never had acreage below 1.33M.  All this means a massive reduction in acres when we normally achieve 1.4-1.5M acres and we may end up with only 1.1-1.2M.

Next week on March 31, the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will be released.  This will be our first official estimate of acreage intentions for the 2022 season.  Certainly markets will move and things will change following this release.

Rock on Through Economic Avenue

Jarrod Hardke and Scott Stiles

Certainly the biggest topic is the economics of the competing crops for this year.  Every situation is unique, and all inputs are variable for every operation, but we can work from some generalities.  As one farmer told me the other day, “I’m not sure I’m going to be a rice grower this year.”

When we look at the Operating Costs (aka Returns over Variable Costs) for the different crops, certain things stand out to be sure.  I have taken the enterprise budgets currently available and adjusted them for $700/ton urea and $3 per gallon diesel for Table 1 and used the most recent enterprise budgets for Table 2 – they are drastically different.  Input prices have obviously increased very recently (Table 2), but some growers have secured those inputs at or below those levels and are better represented by Table 1.  Again, this is a conversation point, it’s all constantly changing.

Using a 25% crop rent structure, cotton (1200 lb/ac), soybean (55 bu/ac), and corn (190 bu/ac) stand out in terms of profitability.  Another way to look at things is through the lens of break-even yields.

One element to consider in budgeting and economics is the total farming budget – there are costs inherent to every operation which would not be covered by a shift to all soybeans.  For those in rice rotations there are management and labor costs that can’t be automatically covered on a soybean budget, making cropping decisions even more difficult.

Break-even yield ranges:

Corn – 157-177 bu/ac

Cotton – 821-896 lb/ac

Rice FP Hybrid – 176-196 bu/ac

Rice Hybrid – 170-190 bu/ac

Rice Variety – 154-174 bu/ac

Rice CL Variety – 161-182 bu/ac

Soybean E3/Xm – 42-45 bu/ac

If you had no inputs booked at this point in time, to make the same profit margin as 60 bu/ac soybeans, hybrid rice would need to achieve 223 bu/ac.  Not every farm makes 60 bu/ac soybeans, but very few fields make 223 bu/ac rice crops.  However, if you have some fertilizer and fuel inputs booked earlier when prices were lower, the situation does improve to 209 bu/ac hybrid rice to make the same as 60 bu/ac soybeans. But the point is every operation is going to be unique and those with higher soybean yields make sense to shift more that way while farms with stronger rice yields may continue to pencil as favorably or more favorably (maybe) than soybean.

Get ahold of the Enterprise Budgets on your computer and pencil in your expected input costs and your reasonable yield expectations.  Let that guide your final cropping decisions.  Grow the crop mix that gives you the best shot for 2022.

Table 1. Budget comparison using Jan-Feb 2022 fertilizer and fuel prices.

Table 2.  Budget comparison using March 2022 fertilizer and fuel prices.

Tank-mixing Glyphosate and Clomazone for Aerial Applications

Jarrod Hardke and Tommy Butts

With product availability issues – notably glyphosate – there could be issues with our tank-mixes for rice.  Any herbicide being aerially applied with clomazone must have a specific state registration to allow the tank-mix.  The full spreadsheet containing all approved mixes with clomazone products can be found on the Arkansas Dept. of Agriculture (ADA) website here:  https://www.agriculture.arkansas.gov/plant-industries/pesticide-section/registration/.

Ultimately, as you purchase and secure glyphosate, keep in mind what you have and when you’ll use it.  Some glyphosate products may not be approved for clomazone tank-mixes and might be best used in earlier burndown applications or saved for use in other cropping systems.  Glyphosate products approved for tank-mix with clomazone should be reserved for at planting applications on our rice acres.  The table below provides the approved glyphosate + clomazone tank-mix options based on those provided in the file from the ADA.  While we have done our best to capture the information in the below table, the ADA file and product labels should be checked to confirm accuracy.

Table 3.  Approved tank-mixes with clomazone and glyphosate for aerial applications in rice.

Row Crops Radio Podcasts

Check out these podcast episodes by following the link or by listening to them on Arkansas Row Crops Radio wherever you listen to podcasts.

Weeds AR Wild Series, S2 Ep 6: Herbicide Resistance Concerns for Arkansas Rice (3/24/22)

Rice & Advice Series, S2 Ep 1: Rice Preplant and Early Season Fertility (3/21/22)

Weeds AR Wild Series, S2 Ep 5: Rice Weed Control: Traits, Residuals, and Programs (3/16/22)

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.