Arkansas Rice Update 3-21-23

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - March 21, 2023

Arkansas Rice Update 2023-01

March 21, 2023

Jarrod Hardke and Tommy Butts

“I don’t know where we’re going but there’s no use being late.”

Season Outlook Struggling for Direction

The 2022 season marked a second consecutive year of declining rice acres.  The 2007 season was the last time that happened (and we were still over 1.3 million acres).  2022 marked only the second time we’ve fallen below 1.1 million harvested acres since 1987 (2013 was the other).

While 2022 ended up seeing strong enough rice prices to hold onto the acres we did get, there seems to again be weak price support for rice acres at this point in the year.  Rice prices have fallen below $7 while soybean prices are in the $13 range.

While some input prices continue to improve, potential positive outlooks for 2023 are fading.  Based on current commodity prices and input price estimates, break-even yields are:

• 169 bu/ac for conventional rice variety

• 190 bu/ac for conventional rice hybrid

• 173 bu/ac for Clearfield rice variety

• 194 bu/ac for FullPage rice hybrid

• 50 bu/ac for Xtend or Enlist soybean

• 177 bu/ac for stacked trait corn

This is the bushels needed to cover variable costs (operating costs) at current prices.  For these calculations I’ve adjusted the fertilizer and fuel costs (downward) currently found in our Enterprise Budgets.  I strongly advise you utilize those budgets adjusted for your own input costs for guidance.

Comparing various scenarios in 2022’s pricing patterns, these break-even yields for 2023 are higher than those in 2022 (that’s a bad thing).  Commodity prices have fallen much faster than the fertilizer and fuel prices have to this point, and then there’s the interest rates.  Is 2023 going to be a tougher year than 2022 or will things straighten themselves out?

Rice acres still seem in line to rebound to a total of 1.3 million acres.  However, not long ago there seemed to be potential to exceed that number with a favorable early planting window (April).  Prices will continue to change and evolve for commodities and inputs, but at the moment the outlook appears to be weakening instead of driving toward more acres.

(Lack of) Progress

Regular rainfall events so far this year have allowed little to be accomplished in the field.  As we approach April, any dry window events will be all hands on deck for preparing ground and hopefully getting some planting underway.

We had one smaller rain event already this week and a larger event expected Friday, but a rise in temperatures to go with them.  Next week looks largely unsettled with some small rain chances and temps in the 60s.  It’s kind of like winter and spring have us locked in a custody battle.  It’s time for the power of positive thinking!  Bring on warmer temps and sunshine so we can get this party started.

Fig. 1.  NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast.

Fig. 2.  Rice planting began this week in isolated dry spots.

2023 Rice Management Guide now available

The 2023 Rice Management Guide publication is made possible by the rice growers of Arkansas through the Arkansas Rice Check-Off administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board and support from the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.  It contains the most requested production recommendations for rice in a single, easy-to-reference PDF.  It is now available for download, and copies will soon be available at local county Extension offices.

Medium Grain Seed Supply Issues

While medium-grain market opportunities appear to have increased dramatically compared to the last few years, seed availability wasn’t quite prepared.  My conservative estimate based on seed acres was that we had 150,000 acres worth of medium grain to be planted in 2023.  We could, and I now believe we are, stretching the seed even further.  Could 200,000 be attainable?  Possibly.

Note that for Arkansas releases (Titan and Lynx) it is allowable to save your seed for planting on your own holdings (land owned, leased, or rented).  A sample still needs to be sent into the Plant Board for GMO and quality analysis prior to planting.

Note:  Jupiter is NOT an Arkansas variety, therefore we do not have the authority to allow you to save the seed.  Doing so would have legal ramifications.  Also:  A traited seed like CLM04 can never be saved.

California varieties are not an option in the Mid-South.  I know some have made calls and wanted to pursue, but it’s not an option for multiple reasons.

First, California Rice Research Foundation, which is grower owned, owns their varieties.  Legally, anyone growing and selling CRRF seed is required to only sell it to be grown in California.

On top of that, any seed coming from California into Arkansas must be quarantined.  There are diseases present there which we do not have here.  Only small amounts of seed of rice from CA can come here, and only then under a strict quarantine policy to ensure clean seed.  This involves APHIS and the Plant Board and exists to protect the Arkansas rice industry.  Again, this is not an option for Arkansas growers looking for more medium-grain seed.

Fig. 2.  Arkansas medium-grain harvested rice acreage, 1990-2022.

Results of 2020-2022 Planting Date Studies

As planting season is upon us, weather permitting, let’s talk planting date effects on yield.  For Tables 1 & 2, the selected cultivars chosen are the ones that have been in testing the past three years.  Others that have been included for fewer years aren’t included but can be found in the results of the Arkansas Rice Performance Trials.

One thing that continues to stand out is that averaged over years and cultivars, general yield expectations are highest in late March and early April.  However, for some cultivars and in certain years, expectations don’t change a great deal all the way into early May.

Weather is going to give us the planting date windows it will, and we’re better off taking advantage of them from here on, whatever they may be.  Early planted rice is slow to emerge, but benefits from emerging the earliest and getting the most long light days.  Later planted rice emerges faster but gets fewer of those days and of course gets harvested later.

Table 1.  Average percent of optimum grain yield by planting date for selected cultivars at the Rice Research and Extension Center, Stuttgart, 2020-2022.

Table 2.  Average percent of optimum grain yield by planting date for selected cultivars at the Northeast Rice Research and Extension Center, Harrisburg, 2020-2022.  **2020-2021 data at Pine Tree**

Herbicide Plant-Back Restrictions

Jarrod Hardke and Tommy Butts

Amid the scattershot of rainfall events, herbicide burndown applications are getting going.  As the weather makes up its mind it can change our planting intentions on the fly.  While these notes are focused on rice, be sure to check out the MP44 for intervals important for all crops.  A few notable plant-back intervals to rice for our burndown herbicides are included in Table 3.  For additional information see MP519 Row Crop Plant-Back Intervals for Common Herbicides.

Table 3.  Notable burn-down herbicides with plant-back intervals to rice.

¹ Plant-back days are rate dependent, days presented are for lowest labeled rate.

Always read and follow label directions.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.