Arkansas Rice Update 12-2-22

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - December 2, 2022

Arkansas Rice Update 2022-26

December 2, 2022

Jarrod Hardke and Scott Stiles

“Have a holly jolly Christmas, it’s the best time of the year.”

Turning the Page

Jarrod Hardke

It’s time to point this rig toward the 2023 season and leave 2022 in all its dust.

My magic 8-ball in its lack of infinite wisdom tells me that based on how things look right now, and nothing really changes (ha!), that we’ll see an increase in rice acres in 2023 compared to 2022.  As a reminder we planted about 1.1 million acres in 2022 and harvested slightly less than that.  What kind of increase in 2023?  1.2 million acres seems like a safe bet.  A favorable start to the spring could easily see us reach 1.3 million acres.  Higher than that is not out of the question, but a few variables need to start piling up to get us there:  early planting weather (the first dry April in 5+ years), maybe some help in nudging down fertilizer and fuel costs, rice prices remaining high, lower ground getting dry, and an increase in medium-grain demand.

One of the things that concerns me at the moment are prices.  I like them, don’t get me wrong, but history tells us that the cure for high prices is high prices.  That is, high prices will correct themselves at some point, and sometimes that correction can be rough.  Let’s add one last cliché – prices fall faster than they climb.

Table 1 provides a glimpse at the break-even yields for 2023 for different crops using a 25% crop rent, current prices (minus basis), and production costs from UADA Enterprise Budgets.  Hopefully some of the input costs will be better than current expectations, but it largely looks like 2022 over again.

You can also check out 2023 Crop Comparison by Yield and Price.  This is an Excel spreadsheet you can download and edit that is built to show different price and revenue outcomes for the different crops.  Note there is one sheet for crop comparison and another sheet for comparison of rice types.

One final note of farewell to our market man, Scott Stiles.  Please see his final post in the Rice Update below.  I know you’ll all join me in wishing him well, and for sharing his insight with us in this newsletter for the past 10 years.

Let us know if we can help.

Table 1.  2023 Crop Budget Comparison for Selected Crops in Arkansas.

Final Results of 2022 Arkansas Rice Performance Trials

Jarrod Hardke

Rice Information Sheet No. 182 Arkansas Rice Performance Trials 2022 is provided below.  This contains the final results of the Arkansas Rice Performance Trials (ARPT) and DD50 Planting Date studies.  This research is funded by rice growers of Arkansas through the Arkansas Rice Check-Off.

2022 Arkansas Rice Performance Trials

The Groundwork for Success in 2023

Scott Stiles

Winter is here.  Most importantly, slow down a little, celebrate the holidays, and spend time with loved ones.  In agriculture we know winter is also a time to review the previous year and prepare for the next.  Find a balance between work and family.

There’s never a shortage of meetings in the winter.  We want to mention the dates have been set for the 2023 county production meetings.  Barring a resurgence in COVID, county meetings will be held in-person.  Take advantage of the information exchanged in these meetings, not only from the speakers but the attendees.  One thing that Zoom will always struggle to provide is the opportunity for networking, the serendipity of human contact and the spontaneous meetings and quickly exchanged words around the coffee pot, hallways and restrooms that spark new thoughts and ideas.  These chance interactions are priceless and quite possibly the most valuable resource we get from in-person meetings.

Something to keep in mind for winter meetings is the “5 and 5” rule.  Maybe during or right after a meeting, list five (5) key takeaways you learned.  Then list five (5) next steps.  These steps could be people you want to follow up with, or things you heard and want to learn more about.  This will keep you actively engaged in the meeting and hopefully add value to your time. 

Below is a listing of our county meetings we have planned as well as two additional meetings of interest that are coming up soon.  Make time to attend.

2023 Winter Row Crop Production Meetings

Winter production meetings begin in January.  Dates and locations for individual meetings may be subject to change, due to weather, COVID activity or other factors.  For specific production meeting details, contact your county extension office.

JANUARY

• Jan. 10 - Poinsett/Craighead - Rice, Soybean, Corn

• Jan. 11 - Lonoke/Prairie/Pulaski - Rice, Soybean, Corn

• Jan. 12 - Cross County - Rice, Soybean, Corn

• Jan. 24 - Lafayette, Miller, Little River - Cotton, Corn, Soybean, Rice

• Jan. 25 - Ashley/Chicot - Rice, Soybean

• Jan. 26 - River Valley - Soybean

• Jan. 27 - Clay/Greene - Corn, Cotton

FEBRUARY

• Feb. 3 - Lee/Phillips  - Rice, Soybean

• Feb. 3 - Mississippi/ Crittenden - Corn, Cotton

• Feb. 6 - Jackson/ Independence - Rice, Soybean

• Feb. 7 - Lee/Phillips/Monroe/St. Francis - Corn, Cotton

• Feb. 7 - Jefferson County - Rice, Soybean, Corn

• Feb. 8 - Arkansas - Rice, Soybean, Corn

• Feb. 8 - Craighead/Poinsett - Corn, Cotton

• Feb. 9 - Greene (AM)/ Clay (PM) - Rice, Soybean

• Feb. 9 - SE Arkansas - Corn, Cotton

• Feb. 10 - White - Rice, Soybean, Corn

• Feb. 13 - Tri County (Lincoln, Drew, Desha) - Rice, Soybean

• Feb. 14 - Monroe/ St. Francis - Rice, Soybean

• Feb. 15 - Woodruff - Rice, Soybean, Corn

• Feb. 16 - Mississippi - Rice, Soybean

• Feb. 17 - Randolph/ Lawrence - Rice, Soybean, Corn

• Feb. 28 - Crittenden County - Rice, Soybean

MARCH

• March 1 - Clark - Rice, Soybean, Corn, Cotton

Industry Meetings:

2022 USA Rice Outlook Conference  December 7-9, Austin, Texas.

Tri-State Soybean Conference   January 6, Dumas, Arkansas

2023 Crop Budgets

The 2023 crop budgets available at:  https://www.uaex.uada.edu/farm-ranch/economics-marketing/farm-planning/budgets/crop-budgets.aspx

As in past years, the budgets are in Excel spreadsheet format.  Prepopulated budgets are available for:  Clearfield, conventional variety, FullPage hybrid, Hybrid, and Provisia production systems.  The spreadsheets allow users to adjust yields, crop prices, share rents and production costs to their specific operation.  If you’ve been pre-purchasing inputs for next year, you likely know some of your input costs already.  Contact Breana Watkins with any questions or comments about the enterprise budgets at bjwatkins@uada.edu or (870) 919-4569.

On the topic of budgeting, we hear often “know your numbers” and “the numbers don’t lie”.  There is truth in the fact that you can’t manage what you can’t measure.  As you prepare a loan renewal package or for a visit to the accountant, you need a brutally honest and accurate balance sheet and a knowledge of your revenue, gross profit, and expenses.  The attention to detail in preparing financial statements will help you figure out what costs are unnecessary or excessive and which revenue-creating opportunities to focus on.

And, business bookkeeping is not something you have to do all by yourself.  There’s no shame in hiring someone to help.  The goal here is to be better informed about your farm business.  We all have strengths and weaknesses.  Trying to do something that someone else can do better is something to watch out for.  If you want to build a great business, surround yourself with great people.  No one can do everything well.  Inventory your strengths and weaknesses.

Good-bye and Farewell

This is my last contribution to the Rice Update as I’m retiring November 30^th after 23 years with the University of Arkansas.  I want to thank Jarrod Hardke for allowing me to be a small part of the Rice Update over the years.  He’s been very kind to a guy that grew up on a cotton farm. 

Over the years I’ve heard the phrase “do what you enjoy and you’ll never work a day in your life”.  I’ve had the privilege since 1999 of getting paid to read, write, and talk.  It’s been wonderful analyzing the commodity markets, visiting with growers and industry on a daily basis, speaking at meetings or to the media.

In the Rice Update, I tried to give you the best data available in a world that’s unstable and a place where flawless answers do not exist.  Did I make some mistakes?  Oh Yeah!  What I’ve learned along the way is this:  accept the unknowns and act anyway.  Make decisions based on the information you have at hand.  Acknowledge that you may make mistakes.  Learn from them and move on.

Best Wishes to all and a healthy and prosperous 2023.

Thanks Jarrod!

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.