Arkansas Rice Update 10-11-24

by Jarrod Hardke, Rice Extension Agronomist - October 11, 2024

Arkansas Rice Update 2024-24

October 11, 2024

Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

“That’s the way that the world goes round.”

Mixed Feelings

If the current yield estimate for Arkansas holds (7600 lb/ac; 168.9 bu/ac) it will be the second highest state average yield on record behind 2021 (7630 lb/ac; 169.6 bu/ac).  The estimate is in line with expectations as yields have overall been very good.  With harvest progress north of 90% and clear, dry days continuing in the forecast we’re quickly nearing the finish line.

The other part of the story has been the milling, and it’s a second straight year of lackluster milling yields.  While 2023 was on average lower than most years, there were areas that seemed less affected and had decent milling while some others were more affected.  In 2024, that doesn’t really seem to be the case with lower average head rice yields up and down the state.

Given rapid early planting progress, our harvest maturity was bunched together as we entered August.  What followed were hot and dry August conditions that rapidly dried rice in the field faster than we could get it harvested.  These lower moistures at harvest typically lead to rice being more fragile (prone to breaking) and lower head rice.

While milling was quickly on the lower side, there were signs of some gradual improvement as we raced through harvest.  However, over Labor Day weekend rains and humidity returned resulting in rewetting and drying of grain, which increases breakage and head rice yields began to slide further.  Once Hurricane Francine showed up, any low moisture rice in the field was punished by the several consecutive rainy days and some plain awful head rice yields began to turn up.

Some of the later rice being harvested now that’s still at good harvest moisture should see some improved numbers (how much so we’ll see).  But it won’t be enough to prop up the overall low milling situation.  So, while yields are high, more rice will have to be milled to meet head rice product demand.

We have one remaining ARPT site to harvest then we hope to have a full preliminary yield report on those trials by the end of next week.

Let us know if we can help.

Fig. 1.  2012-2024 Arkansas rice harvest progress by week (USDA-NASS).

Rice Market Update

Scott Stiles

Friday (Oct. 11), the USDA released the October Crop Production and WASDE reports.  This month the USDA made no changes to the U.S. long-grain or medium grain new crop balance sheets.  However, there were relatively small adjustments to individual state average yields with Missouri and Texas increasing 100 pounds and 400 pounds respectively.  California’s yield was reduced by 150 to 8,650 pounds.

On the supply-side of the U.S. long-grain balance sheet, Production remains at 166.8 million cwt, a four-year high driven by increasing acres.  With record Imports of 39 million cwt and Beginning Stocks of 19.3 million, total long-grain supply is record large at 225.1 million cwt for the 24/25 marketing year.

For demand, the estimate of 2024-25 long-grain exports is currently 76 million cwt and the highest since 2016.  Domestic and residual use of 122 million cwt is record large.  Total long-grain demand of 198 million is also record large.

New Crop Ending Stocks are projected at 27.1 million cwt, up from 19.3 million last year.  The USDA projects the 2024-25 marketing year average farm price to be $14.50/cwt or $6.53/bushel for both long-grain and southern medium grain, unchanged from last month’s projection.  The average price for the 2023-24 marketing year was $15.90/cwt for long-grain and $17.50 for southern medium grain.

Table 1.  U.S. Long-Grain Rice, Supply and Demand, 2024/25.

In the World rice estimates, the most notable changes were made to India’s balance sheet with Beginning Stocks, Production and Exports all increased by 3 million metric tons (mmt) and Ending Stocks increasing by 4 mmt to 43 million.  Of note, India’s rice production is expected to be a record 142 mmt.  The USDA indicated an above-average monsoon season and more rice planted at the expense of cotton were factors behind India’s record production.  India’s exports were increased on the removal of several export restrictions, including its export ban on non-basmati white rice at the end of September.  Exports for Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam are all reduced with the removal of India’s export ban.

The futures market reaction to Friday’s USDA report was somewhat negative with the November 2024 contract turning 9 cents lower.  Trading ahead of Friday’s close was centered around $14.97, which is also the 38% retracement of the move from the mid-June high at $15.86 ½ and the July 19 low at $14.41 ½.  With harvest wrapping up, there is little weather news that can stand in the way of November rice’s seasonal tendency to trade lower in October.  Cash rice basis remains firm around Arkansas with mill bids near $6.50/bu this week.

Fig. 2.  CME November 2024 Rough Rice, Daily Chart.

DD50 Rice Management Program is Live

The DD50 Rice Management Program is live and ready for fields to be enrolled for the 2024 season.  All log-in and producer information has been retained from the 2023 season, so if you used the program last year you can log in just as you did last year.  Log in and enroll fields here:  https://dd50.uada.edu.

Use the Arkansas Rice Advisor Internet App!

The Arkansas Rice Advisor site https://riceadvisor.uada.edu functions like an app on your mobile device.  There you can readily access the DD50 program, rice seeding rate calculator, drill calibration, fertilizer and N rate calculators, publications, and more.

Additional Information

Arkansas Rice Updates are published periodically to provide timely information and recommendations for rice production in Arkansas.  If you would like to be added to this email list, please send your request to rice@uada.edu.

This information will also be posted to the Arkansas Row Crops blog (http://www.arkansas-crops.com/) where additional information from Extension specialists can be found.

More information on rice production, including access to all publications and reports, can be found at http://www.uaex.uada.edu/rice.

Acknowledgements

We sincerely appreciate the support for this publication provided by the rice farmers of Arkansas and administered by the Arkansas Rice Research and Promotion Board.

The authors greatly appreciate the feedback and contributions of all growers, county agents, consultants, and rice industry stakeholders.