USDA’s February Outlook for 2025 PLC Payments
USDA made some revisions in February to its’ 2025/26 commodity price outlook and 2025 Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payment rates. At the present time, USDA is projecting 2025 PLC payments for several program commodities. Projected payment rates as of February 10th are shown in the far-right column of Table 1.
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Table 1. 2025 Projected Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Payment Rates. |
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Crop |
Marketing Year |
Publishing Date for Final 25/26 MYA Prices |
Unit |
2025 Effective Reference Price |
2025 National Loan Rate |
Proj. 2025 MYA Price |
Proj. 2025 PLC Payment Rate |
|
Wheat |
June 1 – May 31 |
June 30, 2026 |
bu |
$6.35 |
$3.38 |
$4.90 |
$1.45 |
|
Peanuts |
Aug.1 – July 31 |
Aug. 31, 2026 |
lbs |
$.3150 |
$.1775 |
$.2400 |
$0.0750 |
|
Corn |
Sept.1 – Aug. 31 |
Sept. 30, 2026 |
bu |
$4.42 |
$2.20 |
$4.10 |
$0.32 |
|
Sorghum |
Sept.1 – Aug. 31 |
Sept. 30, 2026 |
bu |
$4.67 |
$2.20 |
$3.60 |
$1.07 |
|
Soybeans |
Sept.1 – Aug. 31 |
Sept. 30, 2026 |
bu |
$10.71 |
$6.20 |
$10.20 |
$0.51 |
|
Cotton |
Aug.1 – July 31 |
Sept. 30, 2026 |
lbs |
$.4200 |
$.2500 |
$.3292 |
$0.0908 |
|
Rice: long-grain |
Aug.1 – July 31 |
Oct. 30, 2026 |
bu |
$7.61 |
$3.15 |
$4.73 |
$2.88 |
|
Rice: med. grain |
Aug.1 – July 31 |
Oct. 30, 2026 |
bu |
$7.61 |
$3.15 |
$6.21 |
$1.40 |
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source: USDA Farm Service Agency, February 2026. |
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The Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program will trigger payments whenever the marketing year average (MYA) price is below the PLC Effective Reference Price. The payment rate equals the Effective Reference Price minus the higher of the MYA price or the national loan rate.
The PLC payments are made on 85% of a farm’s base acres. The payment rate is multiplied by a farm’s specific PLC yield. Any 2025 crop year PLC payments are subject to a $155,000 per entity limit: up from $125,000 per entity in 2024.
Note, under current peanut program provisions, peanuts have a separate program payment limit. As a result of this feature, a farm operation with peanut base has in effect two different program payment limits: the first payment limit (of $155,000) is for an aggregation of program payments made to all program crops other than peanuts; and the second (also of $155,000) is for program payments made exclusively to peanuts.
To estimate the projected PLC payment, multiply the average PLC yield for a farm by the projected payment rate. For example, in Table 2, the projected 2025 PLC payment for long-grain rice is estimated at $340.27 per base acre (.85 x $2.88/bu. payment rate x 139 bushels per acre PLC yield). Note, ARC/PLC payments could be lower due to budget sequestration. It may be advisable to reduce the projected payments in Table 2. by 5.7 percent (%).
PLC yields will vary from farm to farm. Under the provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, existing PLC yields will remain in effect. A farm’s PLC yields established under the 2018 Farm Bill (known as the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018), were equal to 90% of a farm’s average yields from 2013-2017.
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Table 2. 2025 Projected Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Payments Per Base Acre. |
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2025 Soybeans |
2025 Corn |
2025 Seed Cotton |
2025 Long-Grain Rice |
|
|
Effective Reference Price |
$10.71 |
$4.42 |
$0.42 |
$7.61 |
|
25/26 Avg. Farm Price |
$10.20 |
$4.10 |
$0.3292 |
$4.73 |
|
Projected PLC Rate |
$0.51 |
$0.32 |
$0.0908 |
$2.88 |
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Average PLC Yield |
37 |
137 |
2,059 |
139 |
|
PLC Payment / base acre* |
$16.04 |
$37.26 |
$158.91 |
$340.27 |
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*PLC payments are made on 85% of a farm’s base acres. source: USDA Farm Service Agency, February 2026. |
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In this article we provide a look at USDA’s February 2026 projections for 2025 PLC payments. Given that the 2025/26 marketing year is in its early stages, these payment projections are preliminary and subject to change. Final marketing year average prices for spring planted crops will generally be determined in October and November 2026, with any payments following thereafter. Future articles will address any changes in USDA’s outlook for 2025 PLC payment rates.
References
FSA. February 2026. Informational Forecast: 2025 PLC Payment Rates. Farm Service Agency, USDA. https://www.fsa.usda.gov/documents/2025-plc-pdf
FSA. February 2026. 2025 PLC Yields and Base Acres by County. Farm Service Agency, USDA. https://www.fsa.usda.gov/documents/plc-county-yields-py2025